name: temporal-sequencing
description: Determine optimal ordering and phasing of portfolio investments using
Real Options, Critical path, Dependency graph, and Staged investment methods.
dependencies:
tactics:
- pareto-frontier-construction
- scenario-stress-testing
sops:
- objective-definition
- optimization-run
- portfolio-evaluation-per-scenario
- portfolio-synthesis
- scenario-construction
Temporal Sequencing
Purpose
Determine the optimal order, timing, and phasing of portfolio elements when dependencies, learning effects, and option value make sequencing matter as much as selection.
When to use
- Candidates have dependencies (A must precede B)
- Early investments create options for later ones
- Information gained from early bets informs later decisions
- Budget is released in phases over time
- Timing affects value (first-mover advantage, market windows)
Budget
| Dimension |
Target |
| Candidates sequenced |
8-20 |
| Time periods modeled |
3-6 phases |
| Dependencies mapped |
all critical |
| Decision points identified |
>=2 stage-gates |
State Ledger
| Field |
Type |
Description |
| candidates |
list |
Candidates with timing attributes |
| dependencies |
graph |
Precedence relationships between candidates |
| phases |
list |
Time periods with budget allocations |
| option_values |
list |
Value of information/flexibility from early bets |
| sequence |
list |
Ordered plan with stage-gates |
Available Tactics
| Tactic |
When |
| pareto-frontier-construction |
Trading off speed vs cost vs risk in sequencing |
| scenario-stress-testing |
Testing sequence robustness under timeline uncertainty |
Available SOPs
| SOP |
Purpose |
| objective-definition |
Define sequencing objectives and constraints |
| optimization-run |
Find optimal sequences |
| scenario-construction |
Model timeline uncertainties |
| portfolio-evaluation-per-scenario |
Test sequence under delays/accelerations |
| portfolio-synthesis |
Synthesize robust sequence recommendation |
Execution Guidance
- Map dependencies and precedence constraints
- Identify option value — which early investments create future flexibility
- Define phase budgets and stage-gate criteria
- Optimize sequence considering dependencies, option value, and constraints
- Stress-test sequence against timeline uncertainties
- Build staged investment plan with decision points
Output Format
strategy: temporal-sequencing
sequence:
- phase: 1
candidates: [<name1>, <name2>]
budget: <amount>
stage_gate: <criteria for proceeding>
- phase: 2
candidates: [<name3>]
budget: <amount>
depends_on: [<phase 1 outcomes>]
critical_path: [<ordered candidates>]
option_values:
- candidate: <name>
options_created: [<future possibilities>]
method_used: <real-options|critical-path|staged-investment>
Available Tactics
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Tactic |
When to use |
| pareto-frontier-construction |
Build the Pareto frontier from multi-objective optimization, visualize trade-offs, and select a portfolio from non-dominated solutions. |
| scenario-stress-testing |
Construct distinct future scenarios, evaluate portfolio performance under each, and identify vulnerabilities and robustness characteristics. |
Available SOPs
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP |
When to use |
| objective-definition |
Define optimization objectives, constraints, and trade-off preferences from context and candidate information. |
| optimization-run |
Execute multi-objective optimization on candidates to produce a Pareto front of non-dominated solutions. |
| portfolio-evaluation-per-scenario |
Evaluate a specific portfolio's performance metrics and vulnerabilities under a given scenario. |
| portfolio-synthesis |
Synthesize all per-scenario evaluations into a final portfolio recommendation with robustness score and actionable guidance. |
| scenario-construction |
Construct distinct future scenarios spanning key uncertainties for portfolio stress testing. |
By