By name: temporal-scenario description: How does it evolve over time? — Short/medium/long-term timeline projection with technology maturity curves version: 1.0.0 category: experiment-execution type: strategy sops:
- scenario-driver-identification
- timeline-projection
- scenario-narrative-construction
- scenario-impact-assessment
- robustness-scoring
- scenario-synthesis tactics:
- strategy-robustness-testing
dependencies:
sops:
- robustness-scoring
- scenario-driver-identification
- scenario-impact-assessment
- scenario-narrative-construction
- scenario-synthesis
- timeline-projection tactics:
- strategy-robustness-testing
Strategy: Temporal Scenario
Methodology
Temporal Scenario Planning with Technology Maturity Curves. Project how the research landscape evolves across multiple time horizons (short: 6 months, medium: 2 years, long: 5+ years). Map technology S-curves, adoption dynamics, and paradigm shift timing.
Key principles:
- Multi-horizon: Separate analysis for short, medium, and long term
- S-curve awareness: Technologies follow predictable maturity patterns
- Paradigm sensitivity: Identify potential paradigm shifts and their timing
- Path dependency: Current decisions constrain future options
Execution Flow
Identify temporal drivers → spawn
scenario-driver-identification- Input: research context, focus on time-dependent factors
- Output: drivers with temporal dynamics (maturation rates, adoption curves)
Project timelines → spawn
timeline-projection- Input: temporal drivers, current maturity levels
- Output: multi-horizon projections with uncertainty bands
Construct temporal narratives → spawn
scenario-narrative-construction(×3 horizons)- Input: timeline projections, horizon-specific drivers
- Output: narrative per time horizon
Assess impact → spawn
scenario-impact-assessment(per horizon)- Input: temporal narrative, research approach, decision timing
- Output: time-dependent impact analysis
Score robustness → spawn
robustness-scoring- Input: all temporal assessments
- Output: temporal robustness index, optimal timing windows
Synthesize → spawn
scenario-synthesis- Input: temporal scenarios, timing recommendations
- Output: temporal strategy with decision points
Budget Gate
| Step | Token Budget | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Driver identification | 8K | Time-dynamics focused |
| Timeline projection | 15K | Multi-horizon + S-curves |
| Narrative construction | 12K × 3 | Per horizon |
| Impact assessment | 10K × 3 | Per horizon |
| Robustness scoring | 10K | Temporal sensitivity |
| Synthesis | 12K | Timing recommendations |
Available Tactics
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Tactic | When to use |
|---|---|
| strategy-robustness-testing | Orchestrates impact assessment and robustness scoring to evaluate research approach resilience across scenarios |
Available SOPs
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP | When to use |
|---|---|
| robustness-scoring | Compute robustness index across scenarios with sensitivity analysis |
| scenario-driver-identification | Identify key uncertainty drivers using PESTEL framework scanning |
| scenario-impact-assessment | Assess each scenario's impact on the research approach across multiple dimensions |
| scenario-narrative-construction | Build rich narratives for surviving morphological configurations using Shell method |
| scenario-synthesis | Comprehensive scenario analysis report synthesizing all scenario work |
| timeline-projection | Extrapolate research landscape timelines using trend analysis and milestone projection |