hypothesis-synthesis - SKILL.md Agent Skill

name: hypothesis-synthesis description: "SOP: 综合所有中间产物，产出最终结构化假设集" version: 1.0.0 category: hypothesis-formation type: sop campaign: hypothesis-formulation input: "所有中间产物（理论、机制、变量、关系、边界条件、可证伪性、竞争假设、对比矩阵）" output: "最终假设文档（完整 6 组件结构 + 排序 + 关系说明）" dependencies: skills: - subagent-spawning

Hypothesis Synthesis

收集并整合所有中间产物，产出完整、去重、排序的最终假设集。

HARD-GATE

前置条件（全部满足才能开始）: 1. 已有 ≥2 个假设候选（来自上游任意步骤） 2. 每个假设至少有 statement + mechanism + falsification_scenario

不满足 → 停止，返回错误：假设候选不足或缺少必要组件。

Pipeline

前置检查：验证所有中间产物完整性
收集全部假设候选：汇总来自 deductive/inductive/abductive 路径的所有假设
去重合并：识别并合并机制相同的假设（保留最完整版本）
完整性检查：确保每个假设包含全部 6 个组件（statement/variables/mechanism/boundary_conditions/falsification/measurability）
排序：按证据支持度 + 可测试性 + 理论重要性综合排序
关系说明：标注假设间关系（互补/竞争/独立/层级）
格式化输出最终假设文档

Output Format

{
  "summary": {
    "total_hypotheses": 3,
    "primary_hypothesis": "H1",
    "reasoning_path": "deductive | inductive | abductive | mixed"
  },
  "hypotheses": [
    {
      "hypothesis_id": "H1",
      "priority": 1,
      "statement": "If X then Y under conditions Z",
      "variables": {
        "independent": "X",
        "dependent": "Y",
        "mediators": [],
        "moderators": [],
        "controls": []
      },
      "mechanism": "Causal chain explanation",
      "boundary_conditions": {
        "temporal": "...",
        "spatial": "...",
        "population": "...",
        "conditional": [],
        "exclusions": []
      },
      "falsification": {
        "scenario": "...",
        "testability": "high | medium | low"
      },
      "measurability": {
        "iv_measure": "...",
        "dv_measure": "..."
      },
      "evidence_support": "strong | moderate | weak | none",
      "theoretical_basis": "Theory name(s)"
    }
  ],
  "hypothesis_relationships": [
    {
      "pair": "H1 and H2",
      "relationship": "complementary | competing | independent | hierarchical",
      "notes": "..."
    }
  ],
  "recommended_next_step": "Which hypothesis to develop into a research question first, and why"
}