hypothesis-formation-saturation-detection

name: hypothesis-formation-saturation-detection description: 'Shared SOP: judge whether the current activity has reached information saturation' version: 1.0.0 category: hypothesis-formation type: sop shared: true campaigns:

• gap-prioritization
• hypothesis-formulation
• research-question input: Cumulative output of the current activity + the most recent round's increment output: Saturated/not-saturated verdict + rationale dependencies: skills:
  • subagent-spawning

Saturation Detection

Judge whether the current activity has reached information saturation — decide whether to keep iterating.

HARD-GATE

Pipeline

1. Precondition check: is there enough iteration data to compare
2. Increment analysis: what the most recent round added compared to the previous one
3. Novelty judgment: whether the added content provides genuinely new information
4. Convergence detection: whether the increment is decreasing
5. Saturation verdict: saturated / not saturated
6. Output: verdict + rationale + recommendation

Saturation Criteria

Saturated (should stop iterating):

• The most recent round produced no new substantive information
• The added content is mostly restatement or minor tweaks of what is already known
• The increment contributes < 5% to the final output

Not saturated (should keep iterating):

• The most recent round produced a new dimension/perspective/information
• The increment makes a substantive contribution to the final output
• There are known but unexplored directions

Output Format

Judgment: SATURATED / NOT_SATURATED
Confidence: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW
Rationale: [one-sentence rationale]
Last round increment: [what the most recent round added]
Recommendation: STOP / CONTINUE (with direction)