counterfactual-scenario-construction

name: counterfactual-scenario-construction description: Construct precise, internally consistent counterfactual scenarios where specified factors are altered, then reason about the resulting conclusion. execution: subagent prompt: ./prompt.md input: artifact (string), factor_to_change (string), change_specification (string) dependencies: sops: - spawn-agent

Counterfactual Scenario Construction

Builds precise counterfactual worlds where specified factors differ from actuality.

Execution

Subagent — spawned via subagent-spawning/spawn-agent.

Why Subagent

Scenario construction requires careful reasoning about cascading effects of changes while maintaining internal consistency.

Input

• artifact: The original artifact
• factor_to_change: Which factor to alter
• change_specification: How to alter it (remove, weaken, strengthen, invert)

Output

• scenario: The counterfactual world description
• conclusion_status: holds/weakened/flipped/indeterminate
• cascading_effects: What else changes as a result
• consistency_check: Whether the scenario is internally consistent

Budget

One unit = one scenario construction per factor change.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.