earnings-preview

name: earnings-preview description: "Pre-earnings analysis with scenario frameworks and key metrics. Triggers on: earnings preview, pre-earnings, earnings setup, preview Q[X], 业绩前瞻, 财报预览, 盈利预测" version: 1.0.0 license: MIT

Earnings Preview

Input

• stock_code: Stock code (e.g. 600036 or AAPL)
• period: Reporting period (e.g. 2026Q1)

Workflow

Step 0: Check Cache (MANDATORY)

Before any *_collect call, follow skills/_cache-policy.md:

• Read {target_dir}/data-cache/tushare/{endpoint}.meta.json for each endpoint needed (income / balancesheet / cashflow / daily). Within TTL → reuse the CSV, skip the corresponding *_collect call.
• On cache miss, call the collect tool with out_dir = {target_dir}/data-cache/tushare/ and write the sibling meta.json after success.
• Force refresh when the user says "最新数据 / 刷新 / 重新拉取".

Step 1: Gather Context

• Identify the company and reporting quarter
• Pull consensus estimates (revenue, EPS / net profit, key segment metrics)
  • A-share: use tushare forecast endpoint or web search for analyst consensus (Wind/iFind)
  • US stock: web search for consensus estimates
• Find the earnings date
• Review the company's prior quarter earnings call / investor Q&A for guidance

Step 2: Key Metrics Framework

Build a "what to watch" framework specific to the company:

Financial Metrics:

• Revenue vs. consensus (total and by segment)
• Net profit vs. consensus (A-share: focus on deducted non-recurring / 扣非净利润)
• Margins (gross, operating, net) — expanding or contracting?
• Free cash flow
• Forward guidance vs. consensus

Operational Metrics (sector-specific):

• Tech/SaaS: ARR, net retention, RPO, customer count
• Retail: Same-store sales, traffic, basket size
• Industrials: Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume
• Financials: NIM, credit quality, loan growth, fee income (A-share banks: net interest income, provision coverage)
• Healthcare: Scripts, patient volumes, pipeline updates
• Consumer (A-share): channel inventory, dealer count, ASP trends
• Manufacturing (A-share): capacity utilization, order backlog, export ratio

Step 3: Scenario Analysis

Build 3 scenarios with stock price implications:

For each scenario:

• What would need to happen operationally
• What management commentary would signal this
• Historical context — how has the stock moved on similar prints?

Step 4: Catalyst Checklist

Identify the 3-5 things that will determine the stock's reaction:

1. [Metric] vs. [consensus/whisper number] — why it matters
2. [Guidance item] — what the buy-side expects to hear
3. [Narrative shift] — any strategic changes, M&A, restructuring

Step 5: Output

One-page earnings preview with:

• Company, quarter, earnings date
• Consensus estimates table
• Key metrics to watch (ranked by importance)
• Bull/base/bear scenario table
• Catalyst checklist
• Trading setup: recent stock performance, implied move (A-share: historical earnings-day volatility)

Important Notes

• Consensus estimates change — always note the source and date of estimates
• For A-share: Wind/iFind consensus is more authoritative than web aggregators
• Historical earnings reactions help calibrate expectations
• A-share stocks don't have options-implied moves; use historical earnings-day price range instead