project-manager - SKILL.md Agent Skill

name: project-manager description: | Professional project management skill aligned with PMBOK® 6th/7th Edition standards. Use this skill when you need to define requirements (ISO/IEC/IEEE 29148), review project plans, generate progress reports with Earned Value Management (EVM), conduct risk analysis, estimate costs, or provide project health assessments. Ideal for creating comprehensive project documentation, analyzing project performance metrics (SPI, CPI, EAC), managing risks across 14 categories, and ensuring stakeholder alignment. Triggers: "create project plan", "analyze project health", "calculate EVM", "risk assessment", "requirements definition", "progress report", "cost estimation", or requests involving PMBOK knowledge areas.

Project Manager

Overview

This skill provides comprehensive project management capabilities aligned with PMBOK® (Project Management Body of Knowledge) 6th and 7th Edition standards. It integrates proven methodologies, best practices, and templates to support project managers in delivering successful projects on time, within budget, and meeting quality expectations.

The skill is structured around PMBOK's 10 Knowledge Areas and 5 Process Groups, with particular emphasis on:

Requirements Engineering (ISO/IEC/IEEE 29148 compliant)
Earned Value Management (EVM) for objective progress tracking
Risk Management using three-phase structured approach
Stakeholder Management and communication planning
Cost Estimation and Control with forecasting
Quality Management with metrics and continuous improvement

This skill is designed for both experienced project managers seeking to standardize their approach and those new to formal project management who need structured guidance.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when you need to:

Define Requirements: "Create a requirements definition document for our CRM implementation project"
Review Project Plans: "Review this project plan and identify risks and missing elements"
Generate Progress Reports: "Create a monthly progress report with EVM analysis"
Conduct Risk Analysis: "Perform a comprehensive risk assessment for this project"
Estimate Costs: "Estimate project costs using bottom-up estimation approach"
Assess Project Health: "Analyze current project health based on these metrics"
Create Project Documentation: "Generate a project charter for this initiative"
Stakeholder Management: "Develop a stakeholder engagement plan"
Schedule Management: "Analyze the critical path and schedule performance"

Example Requests:

"I'm starting a new enterprise software implementation. Help me define comprehensive requirements."
"Our project is showing SPI of 0.85. Generate a progress report and recommend recovery actions."
"Conduct a risk assessment for this legacy system migration project."
"Review our project plan and check if we're following PMBOK best practices."
"Calculate EAC, ETC, and TCPI based on our current EVM data."

Project Management Framework

PMBOK 10 Knowledge Areas

This skill integrates all 10 PMBOK knowledge areas:

Integration Management: Coordinating all project aspects
Scope Management: Defining and controlling what's included/excluded
Schedule Management: Planning, monitoring, and controlling timeline
Cost Management: Estimating, budgeting, and controlling costs
Quality Management: Ensuring deliverables meet requirements
Resource Management: Planning and managing team and resources
Communications Management: Ensuring timely and appropriate information flow
Risk Management: Identifying, analyzing, and responding to risks
Procurement Management: Managing vendor relationships and contracts
Stakeholder Management: Identifying and engaging stakeholders

PMBOK 5 Process Groups

The skill supports workflows across all 5 process groups:

Initiating: Project charter, stakeholder identification
Planning: Requirements, schedule, budget, risk planning
Executing: Deliverable creation, team management
Monitoring & Controlling: Progress tracking, EVM, change control
Closing: Lessons learned, documentation, formal acceptance

Core Workflow 1: Requirements Definition

Use this workflow when starting a new project or phase requiring detailed requirements documentation.

Step 1: Understand Project Context

Ask these questions:

What business problem are we solving?
Who are the key stakeholders?
What are the business goals and success criteria?
What are the constraints (budget, timeline, resources)?
Are there regulatory or compliance requirements?

Step 2: Gather Requirements

Information Gathering Methods:

Interviews: One-on-one with stakeholders
Workshops: Facilitated group sessions
Surveys: Structured questionnaires
Document Analysis: Review existing documentation
Observation: Watch current processes
Prototyping: Show mockups to elicit feedback

Use the Requirements Definition Template from assets/requirements_definition_template.md

Step 3: Document Requirements

Functional Requirements (FR):

FR-001: User Login
- Priority: Must Have
- User Story: As a customer, I want to log in securely so that I can access my account
- Acceptance Criteria:
  - Given valid credentials
  - When user submits login form
  - Then system authenticates within 2 seconds
  - And logs the event

Non-Functional Requirements (NFR):

NFR-PERF-001: Response Time
- Category: Performance
- Requirement: 95% of page loads < 2 seconds
- Measurement: APM tool monitoring

Step 4: Prioritize with MoSCoW

Must Have: Critical for project success, non-negotiable
Should Have: Important but not critical, can be deferred
Could Have: Nice to have, easily postponed
Won't Have: Out of scope for current release

Step 5: Create Traceability Matrix

Link each requirement to:

Business objective
Design element
Test case ID
Responsible party

Example:

Req ID	Business Objective	Design Element	Test Case	Status
FR-001	Improve security	Auth Module	TC-001, TC-002	Approved

Step 6: Establish Change Control

Change Request Process:

Stakeholder submits change request
PM assesses impact (scope, schedule, cost, risk)
Change Control Board (CCB) reviews
Decision: Approve / Reject / Defer
Update baseline if approved
Communicate decision

Output

Generate a comprehensive Requirements Definition Document that includes:

Project overview and business goals
Stakeholder analysis and communication plan
Functional requirements with acceptance criteria
Non-functional requirements (performance, security, usability, etc.)
Interface specifications and data requirements
Requirements traceability matrix
Change control process
Approval signatures

Core Workflow 2: Project Plan Review

Use this workflow to review and validate a project plan against PMBOK best practices.

Step 1: Review Across 10 Knowledge Areas

Integration Management:

✓ Is there a project charter with clear authority?
✓ Is there an integrated project management plan?
✓ Is there a change control process?

Scope Management:

✓ Is the scope clearly defined (in-scope and out-of-scope)?
✓ Is there a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)?
✓ Are acceptance criteria defined?

Schedule Management:

✓ Are all activities identified and sequenced?
✓ Is the critical path identified?
✓ Is there schedule contingency/buffer?
✓ Are dependencies documented?

Cost Management:

✓ Is there a detailed cost estimate with basis?
✓ Is there a cost baseline?
✓ Is there contingency reserve (typically 10-20%)?
✓ Is there a cost tracking mechanism?

Quality Management:

✓ Are quality standards defined?
✓ Is there a quality assurance plan?
✓ Are acceptance criteria clear and measurable?
✓ Is testing time adequate (typically 20-30% of schedule)?

Resource Management:

✓ Are all roles and responsibilities defined (RACI matrix)?
✓ Is resource availability confirmed?
✓ Are there skill gaps that need addressing?
✓ Is there a team development plan?

Communications Management:

✓ Is there a communication plan with frequency and format?
✓ Are reporting mechanisms defined?
✓ Is there a stakeholder engagement plan?

Risk Management:

✓ Is there a risk register with identified risks?
✓ Are risks prioritized (probability × impact)?
✓ Are risk response strategies defined?
✓ Is there a risk monitoring plan?

Procurement Management:

✓ Are vendor requirements identified?
✓ Is contract type appropriate (Fixed-price, T&M, Cost-plus)?
✓ Are SLAs defined?
✓ Is there a vendor management plan?

Stakeholder Management:

✓ Are all stakeholders identified?
✓ Is stakeholder interest and influence assessed?
✓ Are engagement strategies defined?

Step 2: Review from 5 Stakeholder Perspectives

Executive Sponsor View:

Business value and ROI clearly articulated?
Strategic alignment evident?
Decision points and escalation paths defined?

Project Team View:

Roles and responsibilities clear?
Realistic workload and timeline?
Adequate resources and tools?

End User View:

User needs and pain points addressed?
Change management and training planned?
User acceptance testing included?

IT Operations View:

Support model defined?
Infrastructure and environment requirements clear?
Transition and cutover planned?

PMO View:

Consistent with organizational standards?
Appropriate governance structure?
Adequate documentation and controls?

Step 3: Identify Gaps and Risks

Common Gaps:

Requirements not signed off
No contingency reserve
Testing time inadequate (<20% of schedule)
Vendor SLAs not defined
No risk register
Unrealistic schedule (no buffer)
Change control process missing

Red Flags:

Timeline < 6 months for complex project
No executive sponsor or weak sponsor
Fixed-price contract with unclear scope
Team unfamiliar with technology
Multiple external dependencies on critical path
Regulatory requirements not addressed

Step 4: Generate Review Report

Review Report Structure:

# Project Plan Review Report

## Executive Summary
[Overall assessment: Green/Yellow/Red]

## Strengths
- [What's done well]

## Gaps Identified
1. [Gap] - Severity: Critical/High/Medium/Low
   - Impact: [Description]
   - Recommendation: [Action]

## Risks Identified
1. [Risk] - Probability: [%] - Impact: [Cost/Schedule]
   - Mitigation: [Strategy]

## Recommendations
1. [Recommendation] - Priority: [Level]
   - Rationale: [Why]
   - Expected Benefit: [Outcome]

## Approval Recommendation
☐ Approve as is
☐ Approve with conditions
☐ Revise and resubmit

Core Workflow 3: Progress Reporting with Earned Value Management

Use this workflow to generate objective, data-driven progress reports using EVM.

Step 1: Collect EVM Data

Required Metrics:

BAC (Budget at Completion): Total project budget = ¥50,000,000
PV (Planned Value): Value of work scheduled to be completed = ¥30,000,000
EV (Earned Value): Value of work actually completed = ¥25,000,000
AC (Actual Cost): Actual cost incurred = ¥28,000,000

Step 2: Calculate Performance Indices

Schedule Performance:

SV (Schedule Variance) = EV - PV
= ¥25M - ¥30M = -¥5M (behind schedule)

SPI (Schedule Performance Index) = EV / PV
= ¥25M / ¥30M = 0.83

Interpretation: Project is 17% behind schedule

Cost Performance:

CV (Cost Variance) = EV - AC
= ¥25M - ¥28M = -¥3M (over budget)

CPI (Cost Performance Index) = EV / AC
= ¥25M / ¥28M = 0.89

Interpretation: For every ¥1 spent, we're getting ¥0.89 of value

Combined Performance:

SPI < 1.0 AND CPI < 1.0 = Critical: Behind schedule AND over budget
SPI < 1.0 AND CPI ≥ 1.0 = At Risk: Behind schedule but within budget
SPI ≥ 1.0 AND CPI < 1.0 = At Risk: On schedule but over budget
SPI ≥ 1.0 AND CPI ≥ 1.0 = Healthy: On/ahead of schedule and within/under budget

Step 3: Forecast Completion

EAC (Estimate at Completion):

Method 1: Atypical variance (current performance not indicative of future)
EAC = AC + (BAC - EV)
= ¥28M + (¥50M - ¥25M) = ¥53M

Method 2: Typical cost variance (expect similar performance)
EAC = BAC / CPI
= ¥50M / 0.89 = ¥56.2M (more pessimistic)

Method 3: Consider both schedule and cost performance
EAC = AC + ((BAC - EV) / (CPI × SPI))
= ¥28M + ((¥50M - ¥25M) / (0.89 × 0.83)) = ¥61.9M (most pessimistic)

ETC (Estimate to Complete):

ETC = EAC - AC
= ¥56.2M - ¥28M = ¥28.2M remaining

VAC (Variance at Completion):

VAC = BAC - EAC
= ¥50M - ¥56.2M = -¥6.2M (projected overrun)

TCPI (To-Complete Performance Index):

TCPI = (BAC - EV) / (BAC - AC)
= (¥50M - ¥25M) / (¥50M - ¥28M) = 1.14

Interpretation: Need 14% improvement in efficiency to complete on budget

Step 4: Generate Progress Report

Use the Progress Report Template from assets/progress_report_template.md

Key Sections:

Executive Summary with overall health indicator
EVM analysis with SPI, CPI, forecasts
Milestone status
Budget summary
Quality metrics
Risk register summary
Accomplishments and upcoming activities
Recommendations and actions

Step 5: Recommend Recovery Actions

If SPI < 1.0 (Behind Schedule):

Fast-track: Perform activities in parallel
Crash: Add resources to critical path
Reduce scope: Descope "Should Have" or "Could Have" items
Extend deadline: Negotiate with stakeholder

If CPI < 1.0 (Over Budget):

Value engineering: Find less expensive solutions
Reduce scope: Cut features to save cost
Negotiate better vendor rates
Increase budget: Request additional funding
Improve efficiency: Reduce waste, improve processes

If Both < 1.0 (Critical Situation):

Immediate escalation to sponsor
Consider project viability
Major corrective actions required
May need scope reduction or budget increase

Core Workflow 4: Risk Management

Use this workflow to systematically identify, analyze, and respond to project risks.

Step 1: Information Gathering (14 Categories)

Use the Risk Analysis Template from assets/risk_analysis_template.md

Gather information across these categories:

Project Overview: Purpose, strategic importance, legacy system age, pain points
Scope and Complexity: Functional scope, integrations, data migration, requirements maturity
Stakeholders: Sponsor level, decision-making structure, alignment
Team and Resources: Size, roles filled, availability, skill gaps
Vendors: Prime contractor, subcontractors, contract type, SLAs
Schedule: Timeline, go-live date, external deadlines, buffer
Budget: Total budget, estimation method, contingency, funding status
Requirements: Completeness, sign-off status, change velocity, NFRs
Technology: Stack, maturity, team familiarity, architecture complexity
Change Management: Users impacted, process changes, change plan, training
Quality & Testing: Testing time, test environment, acceptance criteria
Dependencies: External dependencies, project dependencies, constraints
Compliance: Regulatory environment, standards, compliance review
Success Metrics: KPIs defined, measurement plan, expected ROI

Step 2: Risk Identification (9 Categories)

1. Scope and Requirements Risks

Requirements volatility/scope creep
Unclear acceptance criteria
Competing stakeholder interests

Indicators:

⚠ Requirements <70% complete
⚠ No formal sign-off process
⚠ Frequent changes (>5% per week)

2. Schedule Risks

Aggressive timeline
Hard external deadlines
Critical path dependencies

Indicators:

⚠ Timeline <6 months for complex project
⚠ No schedule contingency
⚠ External dependencies on critical path

3. Cost Risks

Budget underestimation
Exchange rate exposure
Cost tracking gaps

Indicators:

⚠ Parametric estimate without validation
⚠ No contingency reserve (<10%)
⚠ Fixed-price with unclear scope

4. Quality Risks

Critical defects in production
Insufficient testing
Limited QA resources

Indicators:

⚠ Testing time <20% of schedule
⚠ Test environment not representative
⚠ No test automation

5. Resource and Personnel Risks

Key person departure
Critical skill gaps
High turnover

Indicators:

⚠ Single point of failure
⚠ >50% part-time resources
⚠ Competing project priorities

6. Stakeholder Risks

Stakeholder misalignment
Low engagement
Conflicting priorities

Indicators:

⚠ Sponsor not C-level
⚠ Multiple approval committees
⚠ Poor communication history

7. Technology Risks

Technology immaturity
Team unfamiliarity
Complex architecture

Indicators:

⚠ Bleeding-edge technology
⚠ Many integration points (>5)
⚠ Performance requirements uncertain

8. Vendor Risks

Vendor performance issues
Weak SLAs
Financial instability

Indicators:

⚠ New/unproven vendor
⚠ No SLAs or weak SLAs
⚠ Fixed-price with unclear scope

9. External Dependency Risks

External delays impacting critical path
No control over timeline
Limited visibility

Indicators:

⚠ Critical path dependent on external party
⚠ No contractual commitments

Step 3: Risk Analysis and Scoring

Risk Score Calculation:

Risk Score = Probability × Impact

Probability Scale:
- Very Low: 10%
- Low: 30%
- Medium: 50%
- High: 70%
- Very High: 90%

Impact Scale (Cost):
- Very Low: <¥500K (<2% of budget)
- Low: ¥500K-¥2M (2-5%)
- Medium: ¥2M-¥5M (5-10%)
- High: ¥5M-¥10M (10-20%)
- Very High: >¥10M (>20%)

Example:
Risk: Requirements volatility
Probability: 70% (High)
Impact: ¥3M (Medium = 7.5% of budget)
Risk Score = 0.70 × 0.075 = 0.0525 (Medium priority)

Risk Priority Classification:

Critical: Score >0.25 → Immediate action, escalate to sponsor
High: Score 0.15-0.25 → Active mitigation required
Medium: Score 0.08-0.15 → Monitor closely, plan mitigation
Low: Score <0.08 → Monitor, accept or plan contingency

Step 4: Risk Response Planning

Four Response Strategies:

1. Avoid (Eliminate the risk)

Change project plan to eliminate risk
Example: Use proven technology instead of bleeding-edge

2. Mitigate (Reduce probability or impact)

Take action to reduce likelihood or consequences
Example: Add buffer time, hire expert consultant, conduct POC

3. Transfer (Shift risk to third party)

Insurance, warranties, fixed-price contracts
Example: Fixed-price contract transfers cost overrun risk to vendor

4. Accept (Acknowledge and monitor)

Active: Set aside contingency reserve
Passive: Do nothing, deal with it if it occurs

Response Plan Components:

Risk ID: R-SCH-001
Risk: Aggressive timeline causing schedule overrun
Probability: 70% (High) | Impact: 8 weeks delay | Score: 0.196 (High)

Response Strategy: Mitigate

Preventive Actions (Reduce Probability):
1. Add 15% schedule buffer to critical path - Owner: PM - By: 2025-02-15
2. Secure full-time resources (not part-time) - Owner: Sponsor - By: 2025-02-20
3. Conduct weekly schedule reviews - Owner: PM - Ongoing

Detective Actions (Early Warning):
1. Trigger: Any critical path task >2 days late
   Monitoring: Daily stand-up + MS Project tracking
   Threshold: Cumulative delays >5 days = escalate

2. Metric: SPI (Schedule Performance Index)
   Current Value: 1.0 (baseline)
   Alert Threshold: <0.95
   Critical Threshold: <0.85

Contingency Plan (If Risk Occurs):
1. Immediate Response: Fast-track parallel activities on critical path
2. Escalation: Notify sponsor if recovery plan adds >10% cost
3. Workaround: Descope "Should Have" features
4. Fallback Plan: Negotiate deadline extension with stakeholder

Resource Allocation:
- Budget Reserve: ¥1,000,000 from contingency (for fast-tracking)
- Schedule Reserve: 3 weeks buffer
- Resource Reserve: 1 additional developer available if needed

Review Schedule: Weekly in project status meeting

Step 5: Risk Monitoring

Risk Metrics Dashboard:

Risk Status:
● Critical: 2    Trend: ↘ (improving)
● High: 5        Trend: → (stable)
● Medium: 8      Trend: ↗ (worsening)
● Low: 12        Trend: → (stable)

Mitigation Effectiveness: 85% on track

Risk Exposure:
Cost: ¥8,500,000 (17% of budget)
Schedule: 6 weeks

New Risks (last 30 days): 3
Closed Risks (last 30 days): 2

Escalation Triggers:

☑ New critical risk identified (score >0.25)
☑ Existing risk escalates to critical
☑ Mitigation budget exceeded by >10%
☑ Multiple high risks threaten viability
☑ Risk requires baseline change

Monitoring Frequency:

Critical risks: Weekly review with sponsor
High risks: Weekly review with PM
Medium risks: Bi-weekly review
Low risks: Monthly review

Core Workflow 5: Cost Estimation

Use this workflow to estimate project costs using industry-standard methods.

Step 1: Choose Estimation Method

1. Analogous (Top-Down) Estimation

When: Early in project, limited detail available
Method: Use historical data from similar projects
Accuracy: ±25-75% (rough order of magnitude)
Example: "Last CRM implementation was ¥50M, this one is 20% larger, so estimate ¥60M"

2. Parametric Estimation

When: Have historical data and quantifiable parameters
Method: Use statistical relationships (cost per unit)
Accuracy: ±10-25%
Example: "Cost per user story point = ¥50,000. Project has 400 story points = ¥20M"

3. Bottom-Up Estimation

When: Detailed WBS available
Method: Estimate each work package and roll up
Accuracy: ±5-10% (most accurate)
Example: Estimate each task individually and sum

4. Three-Point Estimation

When: High uncertainty
Method: Calculate optimistic, most likely, pessimistic estimates
Formula: (Optimistic + 4×Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6
Example: O=¥40M, ML=¥50M, P=¥80M → (40 + 4×50 + 80) / 6 = ¥53.3M

Step 2: Identify Cost Components

Labor Costs:

Internal team: Role × Rate × Hours
External contractors: Contract value
Overtime and premium rates

Equipment and Infrastructure:

Hardware: Servers, workstations, network equipment
Software licenses: Development tools, production licenses
Cloud services: Computing, storage, bandwidth

Materials and Supplies:

Office supplies
Training materials
Documentation

Vendor and Consultant Costs:

Professional services
Subject matter experts
Training providers

Travel and Facilities:

Travel expenses for team
Meeting room rentals
Off-site workshops

Contingency and Management Reserve:

Contingency: 10-20% for known risks
Management reserve: 5-10% for unknown unknowns

Step 3: Bottom-Up Estimation Example

Project: CRM Implementation

1. Project Management (10% of project)
   PM (50% × 8 months × ¥1,000,000/month) = ¥4,000,000

2. Requirements and Design (15%)
   Business Analyst (1 FTE × 2 months × ¥800,000) = ¥1,600,000
   Solution Architect (0.5 FTE × 2 months × ¥1,200,000) = ¥1,200,000
   Workshops and travel = ¥400,000
   Subtotal = ¥3,200,000

3. Development (40%)
   Tech Lead (1 FTE × 6 months × ¥1,000,000) = ¥6,000,000
   Developers (3 FTE × 6 months × ¥800,000) = ¥14,400,000
   Subtotal = ¥20,400,000

4. Testing (15%)
   QA Lead (1 FTE × 2 months × ¥900,000) = ¥1,800,000
   QA Engineers (2 FTE × 2 months × ¥700,000) = ¥2,800,000
   Test environment = ¥600,000
   Subtotal = ¥5,200,000

5. Training and Change Management (10%)
   Training materials development = ¥1,000,000
   Trainer (20 days × ¥100,000) = ¥2,000,000
   Subtotal = ¥3,000,000

6. Infrastructure (5%)
   Cloud hosting (8 months × ¥200,000) = ¥1,600,000
   Licenses = ¥800,000
   Subtotal = ¥2,400,000

7. Vendor/Consulting (5%)
   CRM platform license = ¥2,000,000

Base Estimate = ¥40,000,000

Contingency Reserve (15%) = ¥6,000,000
Management Reserve (10%) = ¥4,600,000

Total Project Budget = ¥50,600,000

Step 4: Validate Estimate

Sanity Checks:

Compare to industry benchmarks
- CRM implementations: ¥5,000-¥15,000 per user
- This project: 500 users → ¥50.6M / 500 = ¥101,200/user ✓ Reasonable
Compare to historical projects
- Last similar project: ¥45M for 450 users
- This estimate: ¥50.6M for 500 users ✓ Proportional
Check resource assumptions
- 3 developers × 6 months = 18 person-months
- Industry average: 0.03-0.05 person-months per story point
- 400 story points → 12-20 person-months ✓ Within range
Verify contingency adequacy
- Risk exposure: ¥8.5M (from risk analysis)
- Contingency reserve: ¥6.0M
- Gap: ¥2.5M → May need to increase contingency or mitigate high risks

Step 5: Present Estimate with Confidence Range

Presentation Format:

Cost Estimate Summary

Base Estimate: ¥40,000,000
Contingency (15%): ¥6,000,000
Management Reserve (10%): ¥4,600,000
──────────────────────────
Total Budget: ¥50,600,000

Confidence Range:
- Optimistic (P10): ¥45,000,000 (10% chance of being under)
- Most Likely (P50): ¥50,600,000 (median estimate)
- Pessimistic (P90): ¥62,000,000 (90% chance of being under)

Basis of Estimate:
- Method: Bottom-up estimation with parametric validation
- Assumptions: [List key assumptions]
- Exclusions: [What's not included]
- Risks: [Key cost risks and how contingency addresses them]

Estimate Accuracy: ±10% (Definitive estimate per AACE guidelines)

Advanced Topics

Agile Project Management with PMBOK

While PMBOK is traditionally associated with predictive (waterfall) approaches, it can be adapted for Agile:

Agile + PMBOK Integration:

Scope: Product backlog (dynamic) + Definition of Done
Schedule: Sprint planning + Release planning
Cost: Story point estimation + Velocity tracking
Quality: Acceptance criteria + Continuous integration
Risk: Sprint retrospectives identify risks early
Stakeholder: Product Owner represents stakeholders

EVM for Agile:

Planned Value (PV) = Planned story points × Story point value
Earned Value (EV) = Completed story points × Story point value
Actual Cost (AC) = Actual labor cost incurred

Example:
Sprint 5, planned 40 points, completed 35 points
Story point value = Total budget / Total story points = ¥50M / 500 = ¥100,000

PV = 40 × ¥100,000 = ¥4,000,000
EV = 35 × ¥100,000 = ¥3,500,000
AC = ¥3,800,000

SPI = 3.5M / 4.0M = 0.875 (behind planned velocity)
CPI = 3.5M / 3.8M = 0.921 (over budget)

Portfolio Management

When managing multiple projects:

Portfolio Health Scorecard:

Project	Budget	SPI	CPI	Risk	Overall
Project A	¥50M	0.95	1.05	🟡	🟢
Project B	¥30M	0.78	0.88	🔴	🔴
Project C	¥40M	1.10	1.03	🟢	🟢

Portfolio-Level Decisions:

Resource reallocation between projects
Project prioritization based on strategic value
Risk aggregation across portfolio
Dependency management between projects

Program Management

For large, interconnected initiatives:

Program Components:

Multiple related projects
Shared benefits realization
Coordinated governance
Integrated change management

Program-Level Activities:

Benefits management and tracking
Inter-project dependency management
Consolidated reporting to executives
Stakeholder engagement across projects

Predictive Analytics for Project Management

Use project_health_check.py to:

python scripts/project_health_check.py metrics.json --output report/

Input metrics.json:

{
  "schedule": {"planned_value": 30000000, "earned_value": 25000000},
  "cost": {"actual_cost": 28000000},
  "quality": {
    "defects": {"critical": 2, "high": 8, "medium": 15, "low": 25},
    "test_coverage": 75
  },
  "risks": {
    "critical": 2, "high": 5, "medium": 8, "low": 12
  }
}

Output: Project Health Score (0-100)

85-100: Healthy (🟢)
70-84: At Risk (🟡)
<70: Critical (🔴)

Quick Reference: Common Scenarios

Scenario 1: "Project is Behind Schedule"

Diagnosis:

python scripts/project_health_check.py metrics.json

Check SPI:

SPI < 0.95: Investigate causes
Common causes: Resource constraints, scope creep, dependencies

Recovery Actions:

Fast-Track: Overlap activities that are normally sequential
- Risk: May increase rework
- Best for: Low-risk activities with clear interfaces
Crash: Add resources to critical path
- Risk: Brooks's Law (adding people may slow things down initially)
- Best for: Tasks that can be parallelized
Descope: Remove low-priority features
- Use MoSCoW: Cut "Could Have" and some "Should Have" items
- Requires stakeholder approval
Extend Timeline: Negotiate deadline extension
- May have business impact (missed market window, regulatory deadline)

Scenario 2: "Need to Cut Budget by 20%"

Approach:

Value Engineering: Find less expensive solutions
- Use open-source instead of commercial software
- Cloud vs on-premise cost comparison
- Onshore vs offshore resource mix
Scope Reduction: Apply MoSCoW ruthlessly
- Must Have only for MVP
- Defer Should Have and Could Have to Phase 2
Resource Optimization:
- Replace senior resources with mid-level where appropriate
- Reduce contractor usage, use more internal resources
- Negotiate better vendor rates (volume discounts, multi-year contracts)
Schedule Extension: Reduce burn rate
- Extend timeline, reduce monthly spending
- Trade-off: Delay benefits realization

Impact Analysis:

Original Budget: ¥50M
Target Budget: ¥40M (-20%)

Option 1: Scope Reduction
- Remove 30% of features (Should Have + Could Have)
- Savings: ¥10M
- Impact: Reduced functionality, may need Phase 2

Option 2: Resource Mix
- Replace 2 senior developers (¥1M/month) with mid-level (¥700k/month)
- Use offshore developers (¥400k/month vs ¥800k/month onshore)
- Savings: ¥8M over 6 months
- Impact: May increase coordination overhead, potential quality risk

Option 3: Extend Timeline
- Extend from 8 months to 10 months
- Reduce team size from 10 to 8 FTE
- Savings: ¥10M
- Impact: 2-month delay in benefits realization

Scenario 3: "Stakeholders Can't Agree on Requirements"

Resolution Process:

Step 1: Facilitate Requirements Workshop

Bring all stakeholders together
Use facilitation techniques to surface conflicts
Document all perspectives

Step 2: Prioritize Using MoSCoW

Force prioritization: "If you must choose..."
Make trade-offs explicit: "Feature X means cutting Feature Y"

Step 3: Escalate to Executive Sponsor

Present options with pros/cons
Let sponsor make strategic decision
Document decision and rationale

Step 4: Implement Change Control

Baseline agreed requirements
All changes must go through CCB
Assess impact before approval

Step 5: Use Prototypes

Build low-fidelity mockups
Get feedback on tangible designs
Often resolves abstract disagreements

Scenario 4: "Vendor is Underperforming"

Escalation Path:

Level 1: Work with Vendor PM

Document specific issues and SLA breaches
Request corrective action plan
Set clear expectations and deadlines

Level 2: Escalate to Vendor Management

Formal escalation letter
Invoke contract clauses (penalties, service credits)
Request senior resources or management attention

Level 3: Invoke Contract Remedies

Service level credits
Penalty clauses
Right to terminate for cause

Level 4: Contingency Plan

Have backup vendor identified
Document knowledge transfer requirements
Prepare transition plan

Proactive Prevention:

Weekly status meetings with vendor
Clear acceptance criteria and Definition of Done
Regular performance reviews against SLAs
Escalation triggers defined in advance

Resources

references/

pmbok_knowledge_areas.md Comprehensive guide to PMBOK's 10 Knowledge Areas with detailed processes, tools, and best practices. Use this to understand the full scope of project management activities and ensure comprehensive coverage.

risk_management_guide.md Three-phase risk management framework with 14 information gathering categories, 9 risk types, and detailed response planning. Use this for comprehensive risk assessments.

assets/

requirements_definition_template.md ISO/IEC/IEEE 29148-compliant requirements document template with functional/non-functional requirements, traceability matrix, and acceptance criteria. Use this to create professional requirements documents.

progress_report_template.md Comprehensive progress report template with EVM calculations, status dashboards, and stakeholder-appropriate formatting. Use this for regular project reporting.

risk_analysis_template.md Detailed risk analysis template with probability/impact assessment, risk register, heat map, and response planning. Use this for formal risk assessments.

scripts/

project_health_check.py Automated project health assessment based on EVM metrics, quality indicators, risk profile, and team health. Generates overall health score and identifies issues.

Usage:

python scripts/project_health_check.py metrics.json --output report/

# metrics.json format:
{
  "schedule": {"planned_value": 30000000, "earned_value": 25000000},
  "cost": {"budget_at_completion": 50000000, "actual_cost": 28000000},
  "quality": {
    "defects": {"critical": 2, "high": 8, "medium": 15, "low": 25},
    "test_coverage": 75
  },
  "risks": {"critical": 2, "high": 5, "medium": 8, "low": 12},
  "stakeholder_satisfaction": 7.5,
  "team_health": {"morale": 8, "turnover_rate": 5}
}

Best Practices Summary

Requirements Management

✓ Get formal sign-off on requirements before design ✓ Use MoSCoW prioritization rigorously ✓ Maintain traceability from requirement to test case ✓ Establish change control process early ✓ Write clear acceptance criteria for each requirement

Schedule Management

✓ Include 15-20% schedule buffer/contingency ✓ Identify critical path and monitor closely ✓ Account for holidays, vacations, part-time resources ✓ Track SPI weekly and take corrective action if <0.95 ✓ Document and manage dependencies rigorously

Cost Management

✓ Use bottom-up estimation for accuracy ✓ Include 10-20% contingency reserve ✓ Track CPI weekly and forecast EAC ✓ Separate contingency (known risks) from management reserve (unknowns) ✓ Document basis of estimate and assumptions

Risk Management

✓ Update risk register weekly ✓ Focus on top 5-10 risks, don't track everything ✓ Assign risk owners with accountability ✓ Link risk mitigation actions to project schedule ✓ Escalate critical risks (score >0.25) immediately

Quality Management

✓ Allocate 20-30% of schedule for testing ✓ Define acceptance criteria before development ✓ Implement continuous integration and automated testing ✓ Track defect trends, not just counts ✓ Conduct regular code reviews and quality audits

Stakeholder Management

✓ Map stakeholder influence and interest early ✓ Tailor communication to stakeholder needs ✓ Engage resistant stakeholders proactively ✓ Secure executive sponsor at C-level ✓ Document decisions and communicate broadly

Communications

✓ Establish regular reporting cadence ✓ Use status colors (🟢🟡🔴) consistently ✓ Highlight decisions needed, not just information ✓ Keep executive updates to 1 page ✓ Use data (EVM, metrics) to build credibility

Troubleshooting

"My EVM calculations don't make sense"

Check:

Time-phasing: Are you comparing same time periods for PV, EV, AC?
Baseline: Is your baseline (BAC, PV) frozen or changing?
Earned Value methodology: Are you using 0/100, 50/50, or % complete?
Cumulative vs. Period: Are you calculating cumulative or period-specific?

Common Issues:

PV = EV = AC = Low confidence in estimates
CPI improving but SPI degrading = Spending less but delivering even less value
Both indices volatile = Poor baseline or measurement approach

"Stakeholders won't make decisions"

Techniques:

Forced Ranking: "If you must choose between A and B, which?"
Impact Analysis: "Not deciding means we'll implement A by default, which costs..."
Time Box: "We need a decision by Friday or we'll be delayed 2 weeks"
Escalation: "I'll escalate to sponsor for decision if we don't resolve by..."
Prototype: Show, don't tell – build quick mockup to drive concrete feedback

"Risk register is overwhelming"

Simplify:

Focus on Top 10: Track only critical and high risks actively
Archive Low Risks: Move low risks to watch list
Combine Related Risks: Consolidate similar risks
Use Categories: Group risks by type for patterns
Dashboard View: Create one-page risk heat map for executives

"Team is resisting processes"

Balance:

Right-size formality: Don't over-process small projects
Show value: Explain WHY (risk mitigation, clarity) not just WHAT
Automate: Use scripts (like project_health_check.py) to reduce manual work
Templates: Provide fill-in-the-blank templates to make it easy
Lead by example: PM should use processes consistently

Examples

Example 1: Enterprise CRM Implementation

Project Context:

Replace 15-year-old legacy CRM with modern cloud solution
500 users across 3 business units
12-month timeline, ¥50M budget
Multiple integrations (ERP, marketing automation, customer portal)

Key Challenges:

Requirements gathering from 3 business units with different needs
Data migration from legacy system (quality issues)
Change management for users resistant to change
Tight integration requirements with existing systems

How This Skill Helps:

Requirements Definition (Workflow 1)
- Use requirements template to structure gathering
- Apply MoSCoW to prioritize conflicting requirements
- Create traceability matrix linking requirements to test cases
- Result: 247 requirements documented, 180 Must Have, 45 Should Have, 22 Could Have
Risk Management (Workflow 4)
- Identified 27 risks across 9 categories
- Top risks:
  - R-001: Data quality issues in migration (P=70%, I=High, Score=0.28) 🔴
  - R-002: User resistance to change (P=50%, I=Medium, Score=0.10) 🟡
  - R-003: Integration delays from ERP team (P=50%, I=High, Score=0.20) 🟡
- Created detailed mitigation plans for each
- Allocated ¥8M of ¥10M contingency to top 5 risks
Progress Tracking (Workflow 3)
- Month 6 status:
  - SPI = 0.92 (8% behind schedule due to integration delays)
  - CPI = 1.05 (5% under budget due to efficient development)
  - EAC = ¥47.6M (forecast to finish under budget)
  - TCPI = 0.94 (can afford slight inefficiency and still finish on budget)
- Generated monthly progress reports with EVM analysis
- Identified need to fast-track testing phase to recover schedule
Outcome:
- Delivered 92% of Must Have requirements on time
- Finished 5% under budget at ¥47.5M
- Successfully migrated 485,000 customer records with 99.7% accuracy
- User satisfaction (CSAT) increased from 7.2 to 8.9 within 3 months of go-live

Example 2: Legacy System Migration

Project Context:

Migrate 20-year-old mainframe application to modern microservices architecture
Mission-critical system (24/7 uptime requirement)
200,000 transactions per day
18-month timeline, ¥80M budget
Zero-downtime cutover required

Key Challenges:

No documentation for legacy system (tribal knowledge)
Complex business logic embedded in COBOL code
Zero-downtime migration strategy required
Regulatory compliance (financial industry)
Skeptical stakeholders (multiple failed attempts in past)

How This Skill Helps:

Project Plan Review (Workflow 2)
- Reviewed initial plan against 10 PMBOK knowledge areas
- Identified gaps:
  - ❌ No knowledge transfer plan (tribal knowledge risk)
  - ❌ Testing time only 10% of schedule (should be 25-30% for mission-critical)
  - ❌ No rollback plan for cutover
  - ❌ Insufficient contingency (5% vs recommended 20% for high-risk project)
- Revised plan increased budget to ¥95M and timeline to 20 months
- Result: More realistic plan with executive buy-in
Risk Management (Workflow 4)
- Comprehensive risk assessment identified 34 risks
- Critical risks:
  - R-001: Unknown business rules in legacy code (P=90%, I=Very High, Score=0.45) 🔴
  - R-002: Cutover failure causing system outage (P=30%, I=Very High, Score=0.15) 🟡
  - R-003: Regulatory compliance issues (P=50%, I=High, Score=0.20) 🟡
- Mitigation strategies:
  - R-001: Hired 2 retired developers who built original system as consultants
  - R-002: Implemented blue-green deployment with instant rollback capability
  - R-003: Engaged compliance team in design reviews from Month 1
Cost Estimation (Workflow 5)
- Used three-point estimation for high uncertainty areas
- Reverse engineering legacy code: O=3 months, ML=6 months, P=12 months
- Expected value = (3 + 4×6 + 12) / 6 = 6.5 months
- Bottom-up estimate with risk-adjusted durations
- Final budget ¥95M with ¥15M contingency (16%)
Progress Tracking (Workflow 3)
- Month 12 status:
  - SPI = 0.88 (12% behind schedule – reverse engineering taking longer)
  - CPI = 0.96 (4% over budget – consultant costs higher than expected)
  - EAC = ¥99M (forecast ¥4M overrun)
  - TCPI = 1.15 (need 15% efficiency improvement to stay on budget)
- Triggered recovery plan: added 2 developers to critical path, descoped 15% of nice-to-have features
- Result: Recovered to SPI=0.95 by Month 15
Outcome:
- Successful zero-downtime cutover
- All regulatory compliance requirements met
- Delivered 2 months late (Month 22) but within revised budget at ¥94.8M
- System performance exceeded targets: 250,000 TPS vs 200,000 target
- Stakeholder satisfaction: 9.2/10 (compared to 3.5/10 for previous failed attempt)

Conclusion

This Project Manager skill provides comprehensive, PMBOK-aligned project management capabilities. By following the structured workflows for requirements definition, progress tracking with EVM, risk management, and cost estimation, you can increase project success rates and deliver value consistently.

Key Takeaways:

Use EVM (SPI, CPI) for objective progress measurement
Manage risks proactively with three-phase approach
Document requirements with traceability to tests
Allocate adequate contingency (10-20%)
Engage stakeholders systematically
Generate data-driven status reports
Follow PMBOK best practices adapted to your context

Next Steps:

Review the reference materials for deeper dives into each knowledge area
Use the templates to create project artifacts
Run project_health_check.py to assess current project status
Apply workflows incrementally – start with highest-value areas

Remember: "Plans are worthless, but planning is everything." - Dwight D. Eisenhower

The value of project management isn't in creating perfect plans, but in the structured thinking, risk awareness, and stakeholder alignment that comes from the planning process.