By name: dog-strategy description: >- DOG v3.0.0 — Contrarian Pup (SM Exhaustion Fader), senpi_runtime_helpers migration. Plumbing-only flip from openclaw-CLI subprocess + mcporter subprocess + Python state to in-process SenpiClient (direct HTTPS for MCP, direct HTTP POST to runtime /signals, long-lived producer_daemon). Thesis preserved verbatim from v2.5: multi-asset (BTC/ETH/SOL/HYPE) contrarian fader, 3.0% exhaustion gate, regime hard-gate, 15m freshness gate, MIN_SCORE 8, conservative leverage (7x base, 10x at score 12+), wide DSL for reversal development. license: MIT metadata: author: jason-goldberg version: "3.0.0" platform: senpi exchange: hyperliquid requires: - senpi-trading-runtime>=1.1.0 - senpi_runtime_helpers
🐕 DOG v3.0.0 — The Contrarian Pup
Smart Money goes one way. Dog goes the other. The crowd is already in — let them eat the unwind.
v3.0.0 (2026-05-12) — plumbing-only migration
NO thesis change. v2.5 scoring tables, contrarian flip, exhaustion gate, regime confirmation, persistence bonus, hard gates all preserved verbatim. Six-layer plumbing flip:
- MCP calls:
cfg.mcporter_call(...)→senpi_runtime_helpers.SenpiClient.mcp_call()— direct HTTPS, kills mcporter subprocess cold-start (~280 ms vs 2.5–5 s per call). - Signal emit:
create_positioncall site removed; producer emits viacfg._wrapper_client.push_signal(...)to runtime/signals. Runtime opens the position via the LLM-gateddog_entryaction. - Reentrancy: hand-rolled fcntl lockfile dropped.
producer_daemonowns the per-tickscanner_lockwith stale-PID auto-recovery. - Tick scheduling: bash
while true; sleep 180loop replaced byproducer_daemon(fn=main, interval_seconds=180, ...). Long-lived Python process, no per-tick cold-start cost. - Risk gates: Python
MAX_DAILY_ENTRIES,COOLDOWN_MINUTES, dynamic daily cap circuit breaker → declarativerisk.guard_railsblock in runtime.yaml. No state files to crash. - Exit fee: DSL exits switched from MARKET (taker, 0.045%) to FEE_OPTIMIZED_LIMIT (maker-first, 0.015%, 60 s ALO timeout, taker fallback). Saves ~0.020-0.030% per maker-filled close.
Why the contrarian thesis works (preserved from v2.0)
Hyperliquid is dominated by leverage traders chasing momentum. When a coin moves 3%+ in 4 hours and SM consensus piles in 15%+, the crowd is already maximum exposed. The unwind happens for two reasons:
- Funding pressure — extreme positioning generates extreme funding rates, forcing the late entrants to capitulate.
- Mean reversion — overextended moves draw counter-trend liquidity from contrarian traders.
Dog's edge is being on the unwind side BEFORE the capitulation accelerates. The wide DSL (hard_timeout: 6h, Phase 2 tiers starting at +5%/20% lock) lets real reversals develop without premature cuts.
What Dog does each tick (3-minute cadence)
- Pull
leaderboard_get_markets(top 100 by SM activity) - For each of BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE: identify SM dominant direction
- Hard gate: 4H price moved ≥ 3.0% in the SM direction (exhaustion required)
- Fetch funding regime + per-asset funding_history for context
- Score the contrarian setup (SM concentration + exhaustion + 15m freshness + regime confirmation + persistence)
- Contrarian flip: emit the OPPOSITE direction
- Push signals at
score ≥ 8viapush_signal()to runtime/signals - Runtime LLM gate evaluates → opens via FEE_OPTIMIZED_LIMIT if confident
- DSL takes over: trailing exits with maker-first close
Scoring (preserved from v2.5)
| Signal | Points |
|---|---|
| SM concentration ≥ 15% (DOMINANT) | 3 |
| SM concentration 10-15% (STRONG) | 2 |
| SM concentration 5-10% (ALIGNED) | 1 |
| Trader count ≥ 100 (DEEP_CONSENSUS) | 1 |
| 4H price aligned with SM ≥ 2% (STRONG_4H) | 2 |
| 4H price aligned with SM 0.5-2% (4H_CONFIRMS) | 1 |
| Deep exhaustion ( | 4H |
| Moderate exhaustion ( | 4H |
| 1H momentum confirms SM | 1 |
| 15m velocity strong spike (cc_15m > 2.0) | 3 |
| 15m velocity spike (cc_15m > 0.5) | 2 |
| 15m velocity building (cc_15m > 0.1) | 1 |
| 1h SM contribution accelerating | 1 |
| Funding pays the fade direction | 1 |
| Regime confirms fade (LONG_CROWDED for SHORT, etc.) | 2 |
| Mature crowding (persistence ≥ 12h) | 2 |
| Stable crowding (persistence ≥ 6h) | 1 |
| Crowding unwinding (DECREASING trend) | 1 |
| Crowding still building (INCREASING) | -1 |
| 4H opposing SM direction (penalty) | -1 |
| US session bonus (13:00-21:00 UTC) | 1 |
Min score: 8 (producer-level floor). Max leverage: 10x.
Hard gates (any single failure → SKIP)
- SM minimums: trader_count ≥ 30
- 4H exhaustion: |priceChange4hPct| ≥ 3.0% AND aligned with SM direction
- 15m freshness: contribChange15m > 0 (SM must still be building, not unwinding)
- Regime hard-gate: skip if
regime_confirms_fade(direction)returns False (e.g. SHORT signal but regime is SHORT_CROWDED — Dog would be fighting, not fading) - XYZ DEX banned: contrarian thesis is for crypto majors only
- Held-asset dedup: producer skips emission if asset already held (defense in depth; runtime per_asset_cooldown is the authoritative gate)
Leverage tiers
| Score | Leverage |
|---|---|
| ≥ 12 | 10x |
| 8-11 | 7x |
Asset caps applied (BTC 40x, ETH 25x, SOL 20x, HYPE 10x); clamped at MAX_LEVERAGE=10.
Risk gates (runtime.yaml risk.guard_rails)
| Gate | Setting | Replaces |
|---|---|---|
| max_entries_per_day | 3 | v2.5 MAX_DAILY_ENTRIES |
| per_asset_cooldown_minutes | 120 | v2.5 COOLDOWN_MINUTES=180 + SAME_DIR_COOLDOWN=90 |
| daily_loss_limit_pct | 15 | v2.5 dynamic cap's -15% defensive level |
| max_consecutive_losses | 3 | v2.5 (implicit; not enforced) |
| cooldown_minutes (post-loss) | 60 | new (fleet-standard backstop) |
| drawdown_halt_pct | 25 | v2.5 dynamic cap's -25% HARD STOP |
| drawdown_reset_on_day_rollover | false | fleet-standard (Roach lesson) |
v2.5's dynamic daily cap had intermediate tiers (12/8/5/3/1 entries based on session P&L). v3.0 drops the intermediate tiers in favor of static max_entries_per_day=3 + drawdown_halt_pct=25. The conservative ceiling and hard-stop are preserved; the "ride the hot hand" tier (12 entries when up 5%+) is sacrificed for state-file-free reliability.
DSL preset (wide, patient — preserved from v2.5)
| Phase | Component | Setting | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 | max_loss_pct | 15% | Tighter than fleet 25% — contrarian losses should be small |
| Phase 1 | retrace_threshold | 8 | Standard |
| Phase 1 | consecutive_breaches_required | 1 | Single-breach (Senpi runtime no longer supports multi-breach) |
| Time cuts | hard_timeout | 360 min (6h) | Reversals take time |
| Time cuts | weak_peak_cut | 90 min, min_value 2.0 | Cut if peak ROE < 2% in 90 min |
| Time cuts | dead_weight_cut | 60 min | v2.4 loosened from 30 → 60 (let fades develop) |
| Phase 2 | T0 | +5% / 20% lock | Don't bank too early |
| Phase 2 | T1 | +10% / 40% lock | |
| Phase 2 | T2 | +15% / 60% lock | |
| Phase 2 | T3 | +20% / 75% lock | |
| Phase 2 | T4 | +30% / 85% lock | apex |
Hard rule for user-conversation Claude sessions
User-conversation Claude sessions MUST NOT call any of:
create_position, close_position, edit_position,
ratchet_stop_add, ratchet_stop_edit, ratchet_stop_delete,
cancel_order, strategy_close, strategy_close_positions.
These tools are reserved for the producer daemon → runtime action path (entry) and the DSL ratchet engine (exit). User-conversation sessions are read-only.
If the user asks an action-implying question ("anything close to triggering?"), respond by reading the current state — DO NOT execute. The producer daemon will handle real signals on its next tick.
Best for
- Operators who believe momentum chasing is a losing edge on Hyperliquid
- Multi-asset diversification across BTC/ETH/SOL/HYPE
- Patient holds (1-6 hours per trade — reversals take time)
- Counter-trend traders who want a deterministic execution layer
Not for
- Momentum followers
- High-frequency scalping (Dog targets 2-3 trades per day max)
- Single-asset specialists
- Anyone who wants the scanner to make exit decisions (DSL handles all exits)
Operator install
See README.md for fresh-install + migration commands from v2.5.
License
MIT — Copyright 2026 Senpi (https://senpi.ai). The Contrarian Pup.