dire-strategy

name: dire-strategy description: >- DIRE v2.0.0 — BRENTOIL XYZ specialist, helpers-native rewrite (2026-05-12). Plumbing-only migration from v1.7.0: producer + v2 runtime (Wolverine v5 / Grizzly v6 / Polar / Kodiak template). NO thesis change. The scanner becomes a producer that emits signals via SenpiClient.push_signal(); the v2 runtime owns execution, DSL exits, and risk guard rails. v1.7.0 thesis preserved verbatim: 4TF alignment hard gate, SM HARD BLOCK via mark/oracle premium proxy, OI velocity scoring, volume spike scoring, price cleanliness check, MIN_SCORE 11, ALL FIVE soft confirmations required (FP-003), FP-001 quiet hours (00-04 UTC unless apex 12+), conviction-scaled sizing (3x / 5x / 7x / 10x by score), DSL preset with v1.7 T0/T1 patch (T0 5%/35% lock, T1 8%/50%). First Kodiak-family port to a non-crypto asset. license: MIT metadata: author: jason-goldberg version: "2.0" platform: senpi exchange: hyperliquid dex: xyz base_skill: kodiak-v5.0 requires: - senpi-trading-runtime

🦡 DIRE v2.0.0 — BRENTOIL XYZ Specialist (helpers-native)

One asset. News-driven. Producer emits. Runtime owns execution. DSL exits.

⛔ CRITICAL AGENT RULES

RULE 1: Install path is /data/workspace/skills/dire-strategy/

RULE 2: PRODUCER ONLY EMITS SIGNALS — RUNTIME OWNS EXECUTION

v2.0.0 plumbing flip: the producer (dire-producer.py) emits SenpiClient.push_signal(...) payloads. The v2 runtime's dire_entry action consumes the signal and opens the position. DSL owns all exits. No direct create_position / close_position / ratchet_stop_* calls from the producer.

RULE 3: MAX 1 POSITION — xyz:BRENTOIL only

No multi-asset rotation. No cross-asset hedges. Dire trades oil, period.

RULE 4: XYZ asset — coin field MUST be xyz:BRENTOIL

The xyz: prefix is mandatory for Hyperliquid HIP-3 DEX. Producer emits asset="xyz:BRENTOIL"; runtime preserves it through the LLM gate.

RULE 5: ISOLATED margin only

XYZ DEX does not support CROSS margin. Runtime enforces ISOLATED via strategy config.

RULE 6: Producer output is a SIGNAL, not an order

The producer logs a single JSON line per tick. The runtime API (HTTP POST to 127.0.0.1:8787) accepts the signal, runs the dire_entry LLM gate, and submits the order. Producer output is for telemetry; the runtime is the source of truth for what executes.

RULE 7: Verify the senpi-trading-runtime plugin is installed and the

runtime is registered on every session start

openclaw senpi runtime list must show dire-tracker. The DSL exit engine is owned by the plugin runtime via runtime.yaml.

RULE 8: Leverage scales with conviction. Hard-capped at 10x. One position.

Sizing is tiered by score, not fixed. Producer computes leverage AND margin and emits both in signal.data:

10x cap = 50% of Hyperliquid's 20x BRENTOIL max. ISOLATED margin bounds each trade's risk to its own margin allocation.

RULE 9: Drawdown circuit breaker owned by risk.guard_rails

runtime.yaml → risk.guard_rails.drawdown_halt_pct: 15. No Python state.

RULE 10: Helpers-native execution

Producer calls MCP via SenpiClient.mcp_call() (direct HTTPS) and emits signals via SenpiClient.push_signal() (direct HTTP POST to the runtime API). No mcporter subprocess. No openclaw cron — producer_daemon owns tick scheduling with stale-PID auto-recovery.

RULE 11 (FP-002): User-conversation Claude sessions MUST NOT trade

This is a hard rule, not a heuristic. When a Claude Code session is responding to a user message (Telegram ping, status check, etc.), it MUST NOT call any of:

• create_position
• close_position
• edit_position
• ratchet_stop_add / ratchet_stop_edit / ratchet_stop_delete
• cancel_order
• strategy_close_positions / strategy_close

These tools are reserved for the producer daemon + runtime (entry path) and the DSL ratchet engine (exit path). A user-conversation Claude session is read-only.

RULE 12 (FP-001): Quiet hours for low-liquidity windows

Producer skips emission during 00:00-04:00 UTC by default. xyz:BRENTOIL liquidity is structurally thin in that window (Asia overnight, EU pre-open). Apex setups (score >= 12) bypass.

Configurable via quietHoursStartUtc, quietHoursEndUtc, quietHoursApexBypassScore in dire-config.json. Disable by setting start == end.

RULE 13 (FP-003): All five soft confirmations required

Even at score ≥ 11, every soft component (Volume + OI velocity + SM premium + Price cleanliness, in addition to the 4TF / SM hard gates) must contribute ≥ +1. Pattern completeness, not just summed score. Set requireAllConfirmations: false in dire-config.json to disable (NOT recommended).

Thesis

Oil responds to discrete news events (OPEC decisions, geopolitical conflict, inventory releases) with sharp directional moves. Typical clean move: 2-5% over 1-4 hours. Typical reversal after overshoot: 3-8% correction over 30 min to 2 hours.

Dire's edge: catch the clean directional move early (4TF alignment + SM consensus + volume spike + OI acceleration), ride with DSL tier protection, exit on DSL-locked profit floor or Phase 1 stop.

What Dire does NOT do:

• Predict news before it happens
• Fade overextended moves (Vulture's thesis on crypto)
• Trade multiple XYZ assets (one asset, one thesis)
• Pyramid into winners (one position max)

Architecture (v2.0.0)

Producer + v2 runtime, helpers-native. Producer scores; runtime executes.

• Producer: scripts/dire-producer.py
  • Long-lived daemon (producer_daemon, 180s tick interval)
  • Per-tick: pull MCP market data → build thesis → push signal if all gates pass
  • NO execution code; NO Python state files
• Runtime: runtime.yaml
  • dire_signals external_scanner consumes producer signals
  • dire_entry LLM action gates and submits orders
  • risk.guard_rails enforces daily caps, drawdown, cooldown
  • exit.dsl_preset owns all exits

Tick cadence

180 seconds (helpers-native daemon). Producer-side producer_daemon owns the lock with stale-PID auto-recovery.

DSL ladder (v1.7 T0/T1 patch, preserved verbatim)

Phase 1: max_loss 20%, retrace 8, 1 consecutive breach. Time cuts: ALL DISABLED (single-asset family pattern).

Gate order (all must pass in the producer)

1. 4TF alignment HARD GATE (5m, 15m, 1h, 4h all same direction)
2. SM HARD BLOCK (mark/oracle premium direction must match)
3. SM conviction scoring (premium tier bonus)
4. OI velocity scoring (flat-path extraction)
5. Volume ratio (15m vs 1h, tiered 2.5x / 5x)
6. Price action cleanliness (no 5m wicks > 1.5% in last 30 min)
7. MIN_SCORE ≥ 11
8. FP-003: all five soft confirmations fire ≥ +1
9. FP-001: quiet hours block sub-apex during 00-04 UTC

Then risk.guard_rails adds: per-asset cooldown (120 min), daily cap (2), drawdown halt (15%), consecutive-loss halt (3), daily loss limit (10%).

Max attainable score: 6 (base) + 2 (SM) + 2 (OI) + 2 (vol) + 1 (clean) = 13.

Configuration

• config/dire-config.json — wallet, strategyId, MIN_SCORE, quietHours, sizingTiers
• runtime.yaml — guard rails, DSL preset, LLM gate prompt
• scripts/dire_config.py — SDK shim + MCP wrapper + helpers
• scripts/dire-producer.py — main producer loop

Monitoring

Per-tick log

status=ok every 180s. signals_pushed=1 when a setup clears all gates. note field documents which gate blocked when 0.

Week 1 review

• Signals pushed: 3-10 per week (gates are tight)
• Win rate: ≥50% at >2:1 avg_win:avg_loss
• DSL trigger distribution: T0 hits often, T2+ on the runners

Version history

• v2.0.0 (2026-05-12) — helpers-native producer migration. Drops self-executing scanner; runtime owns execution. v1.7.0 thesis preserved verbatim. Uses SenpiClient.push_signal(), producer_daemon, risk.guard_rails. First non-crypto Kodiak family to ship v2.
• v1.7.0 — Fleet-wide DSL ratchet T0/T1 patch. T0 lock 25→35, T1 trigger 10→8.
• v1.6.0 — "Hit fewer, win bigger" patch. minScore 9→11. FP-003 require-all-confirmations gate. FP-001 quiet hours.
• v1.1 — Conviction-scaled sizing (leverage 3x→10x by score).
• v1.0 — Initial release. First XYZ specialist. Kodiak-family port.