multiple-choice-forecast

name: multiple-choice-forecast description: Submission format for multiple choice forecasting questions with validation rules. Use when submitting multiple choice question forecasts.

Multiple Choice Forecast Submission

Validation Rules (submission FAILS if violated)

1. All probabilities: 0.001 to 0.999 (NOT 0 or 1)
   • Minimum: 0.001 (0.1%)
   • Maximum: 0.999 (99.9%)
2. Sum: Must equal exactly 1.0
3. Coverage: Provide probability for every option

Parameters

• options: Dict mapping option names to probabilities
• reasoning_summary: Brief explanation (1-3 sentences)

Example

mcp__forecaster__submit_forecast_multiple_choice(
    options={
        "Option A": 0.45,
        "Option B": 0.30,
        "Option C": 0.20,
        "Option D": 0.05   # Use 0.05, NOT 0
    },
    reasoning_summary="Historical data favors A, but recent trends suggest B is gaining."
)

Common Errors

❌ Using 0: "Option D": 0 → Use 0.001 minimum ❌ Using 1: "Option A": 1.0 → Use 0.999 maximum ❌ Wrong sum: 0.4 + 0.3 + 0.2 = 0.9 → Must sum to 1.0