binary-forecast

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Submission format for binary (yes/no) forecasting questions. Use when submitting binary question forecasts.

By rapturt9 schedule Updated 12/13/2025

play_arrow Run Skill in Manus View GitHub

name: binary-forecast description: Submission format for binary (yes/no) forecasting questions. Use when submitting binary question forecasts.

Binary Forecast Submission

Parameters

probability: Float between 0.01 and 0.99 (your predicted probability)
reasoning_summary: Brief explanation (1-3 sentences)

Example

mcp__forecaster__submit_forecast_binary(
    probability=0.65,
    reasoning_summary="Historical base rate is 60%, adjusted +5% for recent positive developments."
)

Install via CLI

npx skills add https://github.com/rapturt9/sound-reasoning-monitor --skill binary-forecast

Repository Details

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Operations Research Analysts 152031