decision-maker

name: decision-maker description: | Helps make high-quality decisions using proven frameworks from top experts. Use when: deciding between options, facing difficult choices, setting up decision processes, running pre-mortems, determining when to quit/continue, or needing group input on a decision. Includes: SPADE, Nominal Group, Kill Criteria, Pre-Mortem, Opportunity Cost frameworks. Sources: Gokul Rajaram, Annie Duke, Shreyas Doshi.

Decision-Maker Skill

Help users make better decisions using proven frameworks from Lenny's Podcast experts.

When This Skill Activates

• "Help me decide..."
• "Should we do A or B?"
• "How do we make this decision?"
• "We need alignment on..."
• "Should we continue this project?"
• "When should we quit?"
• "Run a pre-mortem"
• "I can't choose between..."
• "What's the opportunity cost?"

Framework Selection Guide

Framework 1: SPADE (Big Decisions)

Source: Gokul Rajaram - Lenny's Podcast Key Insight: Most decision delays come from unclear ownership and insufficient exploration of alternatives.

When to Use

• Major product decisions
• Strategic choices with significant tradeoffs
• Cross-functional decisions requiring alignment
• High-stakes, irreversible decisions
• When decision ownership is unclear

Procedure

S - Setting (Define the context)

Template: "We need to decide [specific decision] by [date]
because [why it matters now]. Constraints: [list them]."

P - People (Assign roles)

• Responsible: ONE decision-maker (not a committee)
• Approvers: Must approve (keep minimal)
• Consulted: Provide input
• Informed: Told after decision

A - Alternatives (Generate options)

• Create at least 3 alternatives (avoids false binary)
• Always include "do nothing" as an option
• Each must be viable with clear tradeoffs

D - Decide (Make the call)

1. Gather input from Consulted parties
2. Evaluate alternatives against criteria
3. Decision-maker makes the call
4. Get approval from Approvers
5. Document decision and rationale

E - Explain (Communicate)

• What was decided
• Why this alternative was chosen
• What alternatives were considered
• What happens next

Pitfalls to Avoid

• Vague decision framing
• Multiple decision-makers (pick ONE)
• Only two alternatives (generate more)
• Relitigating after decision is made

Framework 2: Nominal Group Method (Group Decisions)

Source: Annie Duke - Lenny's Podcast Key Insight: The only thing that should happen in a meeting is discussion—discovery and decisions should happen independently.

When to Use

• Brainstorming sessions
• Forecasting and estimation
• Any group decision-making process
• When you need diverse input without groupthink

Procedure

Step 1: Discover Independently (Before Meeting)

• Send question to all participants
• Each person responds privately (no reply-all)
• Collect: their answer + brief rationale

Step 2: Aggregate and Share

• Compile all responses anonymously or attributed
• Highlight the spread of opinions
• Share before the meeting

Step 3: Discuss in Meeting (Focus on Disagreements)

• 80% of time on differences, not agreements
• Facilitator reflects back without opinion
• No interrupting, no "you're wrong"
• Ask clarifying questions only

Step 4: Decide Independently (After Meeting)

• Single decision-maker decides, OR
• Independent vote (can't see others' votes)
• Don't force "alignment"—it doesn't exist

Step 5: Use "Nevertheless"

"I've heard everyone's input. Nevertheless, we're going
to do X. Here's why..."

Pitfalls to Avoid

• Discovering opinions in the meeting (anchoring bias)
• Letting loudest voice dominate
• Seeking "alignment" (accept disagreement)
• Senior person speaking first

Framework 3: Kill Criteria (When to Quit)

Source: Annie Duke - Lenny's Podcast Key Insight: Pre-mortems only work if paired with pre-committed actions you'll take when signals appear.

When to Use

• Starting new projects or initiatives
• Making investment decisions
• Pursuing sales deals
• Launching experiments
• Any decision where you might need to quit later

Procedure

Step 1: Run Pre-Mortem

"Imagine it's [timeframe] from now and this has failed
completely. What were the early warning signals?"

Step 2: Categorize Signals

Step 3: Define Actions for Each Signal For each signal, specify:

• What action to take (kill, pivot, investigate, escalate)
• Who owns the action
• Timeline to act

Step 4: Commit Before Launch

• Review kill criteria with team
• Get explicit agreement to act when signals appear
• Document the commitments

Step 5: Monitor and Execute

• Check for signals regularly
• When signal appears: execute pre-committed action
• No debate—time for debate was when setting criteria

Example Kill Criteria

Signal: Customer only discusses price, won't demo
Category: Red
Action: Kill the deal immediately
Owner: Account Executive
Reasoning: They're using us to beat up a competitor on price

Pitfalls to Avoid

• Setting criteria but not committing to act
• Renegotiating when signal appears ("but it's different now")
• Vague signals that can't be observed
• No action owner assigned

Framework 4: Pre-Mortem Technique (Risk Assessment)

Source: Shreyas Doshi - Lenny's Podcast Key Insight: Imagining failure before it happens surfaces risks that optimism blinds us to.

When to Use

• Before launching projects
• Before major initiatives
• When stakes are high
• When team seems overconfident

Procedure

Step 1: Set the Scene

"Imagine it's 6 months from now. This project has failed
completely. What went wrong?"

Step 2: Individual Brainstorm (5-10 min)

• Each person writes 3-5 failure scenarios independently
• Include specific, concrete reasons
• Don't share yet

Step 3: Aggregate and Categorize

• Collect all failure scenarios
• Group similar ones
• Identify themes

Step 4: Prioritize Top Risks

• Vote on most likely/impactful
• Focus on top 3-5 risks

Step 5: Create Mitigation Plans For each top risk:

• Prevention: How to reduce likelihood
• Detection: How to spot it early
• Response: What to do if it happens

Step 6: Set Kill Criteria (Optional)

• Convert key risks into kill criteria
• Pre-commit to actions

Pitfalls to Avoid

• Not making it independent (groupthink)
• Stopping at identification (need mitigation)
• Not following up on mitigations
• Using it to justify not launching (that's not the point)

Framework 5: Opportunity Cost Mindset (Prioritization)

Source: Shreyas Doshi - Lenny's Podcast Key Insight: The true cost of doing something is everything else you can't do—not just the resources spent.

When to Use

• Prioritization debates
• Resource allocation decisions
• "Should we do this?" discussions
• When ROI analysis feels incomplete

Procedure

Step 1: Identify the Proposal

• What's being proposed?
• What resources does it require?
• What's the expected outcome?

Step 2: List Alternatives (What You're NOT Doing)

• What else could these resources accomplish?
• What's the best alternative use?
• Include "do nothing" and "do less"

Step 3: Compare Against Best Alternative Don't ask: "Is this worth doing?" Ask: "Is this MORE worth doing than the best alternative?"

Step 4: Factor in Hidden Costs

• Context switching costs
• Maintenance burden
• Complexity added
• Options foreclosed

Step 5: Factor in Hidden Benefits

• Learning and optionality value
• Platform/foundation value
• Strategic positioning

Step 6: Make Explicit Tradeoff

"We're choosing to do X instead of Y because [reason].
We accept that Y won't happen."

The ROI Trap

• ROI asks: "Does this return more than it costs?"
• Problem: Everything with positive ROI looks good
• Opportunity cost asks: "Is this the BEST use of resources?"

Pitfalls to Avoid

• Only looking at ROI (ignores alternatives)
• Not quantifying what you're giving up
• Treating decisions as independent (they're not)
• Ignoring option value

How to Apply This Skill

1. Listen for the decision type

   • Big strategic → SPADE
   • Group input needed → Nominal Group
   • Continue/quit → Kill Criteria
   • Risk assessment → Pre-Mortem
   • Prioritization → Opportunity Cost

2. Walk through the selected framework step-by-step with the user

3. Highlight relevant pitfalls based on their situation

4. Offer to combine frameworks when appropriate (e.g., Pre-Mortem → Kill Criteria)

Related Skills

• /strategy-advisor - For strategic direction questions
• /goal-setter - For goal-setting and prioritization
• /leadership-coach - For team decision dynamics

Full SOPs (Deep Dives)

• SPADE Framework
• Nominal Group
• Kill Criteria
• Conviction-Based Persistence
• Pre-Mortem
• Opportunity Cost
• Pivot vs Persevere
• Pivot Decision Framework
• Fear/Anger Decision