mb-bet

name: mb-bet description: "Open, update, close, list, and narrate Main Branch business bets from repo truth. Use when the operator wants to frame an operating bet, track progress, capture a verdict, or draft public-safe narration." loops: [decide, reflect, ship]

Bet

Shared source: The portable workflow contract lives in workflows/mb-bet/workflow.md. This Claude skill is the Claude Code shell over that source.

Shared contract markers: Keep these aligned with the shared source.

Required commands:

• mb status --json --peek
• mb start --json
• mb doctor repair --plan
• mb validate --cross-refs --json
• mb checkpoint --plan --json
• mb similar-bets "<thesis>" --repo . --json
• mb books exposure --repo . --bet bets/YYYY-MM-DD-slug.md --json
• mb books exposure --repo . --active --json

Required fact paths:

• money_path
• money_path.objects.proof.quality
• validation.file_contracts
• content_strategy
• ranked_actions
• update
• readiness
• drift.items
• brain.bets
• brain.bets.active
• brain.bets.due_soon
• brain.bets.overdue
• brain.bets.exit_criteria
• relationship_health.sections.bets
• relationship_health.gaps
• checkpoint.pending
• checkpoint.pending.blockers
• books
• runtime.codex_cli
• runtime.claude_code

Approval gates: updates_repairs_migrations, file_writes, checkpoint, provider_mutation, publishing_or_spend, customer_contact, private_data, destructive_operations, structured_collection, and public_issue_or_proposal.

Public/private boundaries: no_secrets, no_raw_provider_exports, no_raw_transcripts, no_customer_member_data, no_private_runtime_settings, no_private_dms_or_gated_communities, no_raw_finance_legal_records, and no_raw_ledger_rows.

Core flow: Bet is a time-boxed wager, not an offer or push. Preserve new, update, close, list, and narrate modes. Marker phrase: new, update, close, list, and narrate. Keep bets/YYYY-MM-DD-slug.md and the strict contract for typed links and reverse linked_bets; aggregate exposure privacy; public-safe narration; mb validate --cross-refs; checkpoint plan; and the Codex support boundary of read-only planning until runtime smoke proves lifecycle writes.

Business bets are hub nodes in bets/. They connect decisions, research, pushes, logs, documents, and outcomes without replacing any of them. Legacy campaigns/ records may still be linked for old repos, but new coordinated work uses pushes/.

A bet is not an offer. An offer is a durable thing the business sells. A bet is a time-boxed operating hypothesis with appetite, target, deadline, evidence, and a verdict. A successful bet may graduate into an offer, workflow, content pillar, push, or decision; a failed bet should be closed with learning. For the full offer/bet/push/proof routing rubric, use .claude/reference/business-primitives/offer-bet-push-proof.md.

Use /mb-bet for five modes:

• new - open a bet with hypothesis, appetite, MoneyPath anchor, metric, target, deadline, and links.
• update - add progress and link new evidence.
• close - record result, verdict, learning, and follow-up links.
• list - summarize active bets and deadlines.
• narrate - draft public-safe site, community, or social copy from repo truth.

Do not publish automatically. Narration drafts are files or message drafts only.

Repo Rules

Work from the business repo. If unsure, confirm that core/, research/, decisions/, or bets/ exists in the current directory. If not, ask the operator to start Claude from the business repo or run /mb-start.

CLI facts first: Use mb status --json --peek for active bets and repo readiness before direct file reads. Use mb validate --cross-refs after bet/link edits instead of hand-checking relationship health in prose.

Before writing, run:

mb status --json --peek

Use the result to spot active bets and repo readiness. After writing or editing bet files, run:

mb validate --cross-refs

If validation warns about missing bidirectional bet links, repair the linked file frontmatter when it is clearly in scope.

Bet Frontmatter

Every bet file lives at bets/YYYY-MM-DD-slug.md and uses this frontmatter:

---
status: open
opened: YYYY-MM-DD
deadline: YYYY-MM-DD
appetite: "2 weeks"
appetite_tier: small
hypothesis: "If we do X for Y, Z will happen because..."
metric: "qualified calls booked"
target: "10 qualified calls by deadline"
result: ""
owner: ""
money_path:
  required: true
  bet_id: YYYY-MM-DD-slug
  exposure_cap:
    amount: 500
    currency: USD
  anchor_required_before: execution
kill_rubric:
  failure_signals:
    - id: no-qualified-calls
      metric: qualified_calls
      comparator: <
      threshold: 3
      by: YYYY-MM-DD
      action: kill
  double_down_signals:
    - id: profitable-signal
      metric: cost_per_qualified_call
      comparator: <=
      threshold: 150
      action: double_down
linked_decisions: []
linked_research: []
linked_pushes: []
linked_campaigns: []
linked_outcomes: []
public: false
channels: []
tags: []
---

Allowed statuses: open, paused, closed, canceled. Allowed appetite_tier values: trivial, small, material, strategic. Keep appetite human-readable, and use appetite_tier for rough financial weight. The tier should match the operator's appetite thresholds in core/finance/books.md when that file exists.

When an owner is known, use the existing team member slug from core/team/<slug>.md. Ask before creating a new team file, and keep owner enforcement future-scoped unless the bet schema validates it.

For financially material bets, use money_path.bet_id equal to the filename stem and tag private hledger transactions with bet:<id>. Check exposure with:

mb books exposure --repo . --bet bets/YYYY-MM-DD-slug.md --json

For active bets:

mb books exposure --repo . --active --json

Treat the exposure output as safe aggregate evidence only. Do not ask for or paste raw ledger rows, payees, account names, account numbers, private vault paths, or transaction memos into bet files.

Use kill_rubric.failure_signals and kill_rubric.double_down_signals for pre-committed exit and scale criteria. mb status --json evaluates only declared rubrics against explicit metrics: or metric_values: frontmatter; it does not infer kill criteria from prose.

Use repo-relative paths in link fields:

• linked_decisions: decisions/*.md
• linked_research: research/*.md
• linked_pushes (official): pushes/YYYY-MM-DD-slug/push.md or push artifacts
• linked_campaigns (legacy compatibility, leave as [] for new bets): campaigns/*/campaign.md records on existing repos that have not yet migrated. New bets always include both fields with linked_pushes populated and linked_campaigns: []. When the operator is on a legacy campaigns/ repo, recommend mb doctor and mb migrate campaigns --plan before creating new push work.
• linked_outcomes: log/*.md, documents/*.md, or outcome artifacts

When linking an existing file to a bet, add the reverse link too:

linked_bets:
  - bets/YYYY-MM-DD-slug.md

After adding or changing typed linked_* frontmatter, add or repair the body-level ## Related links mirror with Markdown relative links. If the mirror is missing or stale, run mb doctor repair --plan and ask before mb doctor repair --apply; use the connection decision matrix in docs/business-connections.md and do not invent relationships from body links.

Mode: new

Use when the operator says they want to try, launch, test, prove, or make a bet.

1. Ask only for missing essentials: hypothesis, appetite, appetite tier, exposure cap or MoneyPath anchor requirement, deadline, metric, target, kill/double-down signals, public/private posture, channels, and any known linked files.
2. If the idea also sounds like a new offer, ask whether it is only a wager for now or whether the operator wants to preserve a durable offer candidate too. Do not create, rename, delete, or move core/offers/ folders without an accepted decision, approved migration plan, or explicit instruction.
3. Create bets/YYYY-MM-DD-slug.md. If money_path.required is true, set money_path.bet_id to YYYY-MM-DD-slug; do not invent private ledger details.
4. Add reverse linked_bets frontmatter to linked decisions, research, pushes (or legacy campaigns), and outcome files when those files already exist and the edit is clearly safe.
5. End with the file path, deadline, target, and next action.

Body template:

# Bet Title

## Why This Bet

[The operating tension or opportunity.]

## Hypothesis

[Same claim as frontmatter, with context.]

## Work Plan

- [ ] [Concrete action]

## Evidence Log

- YYYY-MM-DD - Bet opened.

## Result

Open.

## Narration Notes

[Public-safe angles, claims to avoid, proof needed before sharing.]

## Related links

- [Existing linked file](../decisions/YYYY-MM-DD-example.md)

Mode: update

Use when work happened but the bet is not finished.

1. Read the bet and linked files.
2. Append a dated Evidence Log entry.
3. Update linked_decisions, linked_research, linked_pushes (or legacy linked_campaigns), or linked_outcomes if new files now matter.
4. Keep result blank unless there is a real result.
5. Repair reverse linked_bets fields on newly linked files.

Mode: close

Use when the deadline passed, the target is hit, or the operator decides to stop.

1. Ask for the actual result if repo evidence is not enough.
2. Set status: closed or status: canceled.
3. Fill result with the measured outcome and verdict.
4. Add a ## Learning section or update it if present.
5. Link outcome files and add reverse linked_bets fields.
6. If the bet changes durable offer truth, suggest a follow-up decision before editing core/offer.md or core/offers/<slug>/offer.md.
7. Graduation options: update an existing offer, create a new offer candidate, create a push/playbook, update proof, or justify a linked child repo. Keep the closed bet as history.
8. For paused, dead, superseded, or canceled offer ideas, preserve the record and mark status/verdict; do not delete offer folders as cleanup.

Mode: list

Summarize active bets from mb status --json --peek and direct file reads:

• deadline
• status
• target
• metric
• appetite tier and exposure cap when declared
• missing MoneyPath or missing exit criteria
• triggered kill or double-down signals
• public/private posture
• blocked or overdue signals

Keep it short. End with the next bet that needs attention.

Mode: narrate

Draft public-safe narration from the bet and linked repo truth. Do not invent results, metrics, claims, testimonials, or publishing channels.

Ask the operator which surface if unclear:

1. site
2. community
3. social

Draft format:

# Narration Draft

Surface: [site/community/social]
Source bet: bets/YYYY-MM-DD-slug.md

## Public Angle

[What can be shared safely.]

## Draft

[Post or page copy.]

## Claims To Verify

- [Any metric, result, or proof that needs source confirmation.]

## Source Links

- [repo-relative paths read]

If the bet has public: false, ask before drafting public copy. Offer a private internal retrospective instead.

Exit

Tell the operator what changed, which files were linked, and whether validation passed. If bet files or linked repo truth changed, run mb checkpoint --plan --json, show the proposed checkpoint and any blockers, validate the chosen message with mb checkpoint --validate "..." --json, and save with mb checkpoint --message "..." --yes only after operator approval.

End with the exact next command:

mb status