niche-success-scorecard - SKILL.md Agent Skill

name: niche-success-scorecard description: Quantitative scoring of niche viability for lifestyle SaaS ($1-3M ARR, solo/duo team). Use after completing a first-pass evaluation to generate a weighted score and go/no-go decision. Triggers on requests like "score this niche", "rate this opportunity", "should I pursue this", or "give me a scorecard for [niche]". Produces a 0-100 weighted score with clear decision thresholds.

Niche Success Scorecard — Lifestyle SaaS

Goal

Generate a quantitative score (0–100) to determine if a niche can realistically reach $1–3M ARR with a solo/duo team.

When to Use

Run this after completing a First Pass evaluation. Requires concrete data on distribution, pricing, competition, and buildability.

Scoring System

Each dimension scored 0–5, then weighted. Total = 100 points max.

1. Distribution You Can Execute Solo (35%)

Score	Criteria
0	No identifiable list, channel, or inbound path
1	Vague audience; would require paid ads with no proven playbook
2	Audience exists but no clean list; cold outbound only
3	One grindy channel that could work with sustained effort
4	Clear list OR strong inbound signal, but not both
5	Clean buyer list + at least one secondary channel/inbound confirmed

Weight: 35 points (Score × 7)

2. ARPA + Path to $1–3M ARR (20%)

Score	Criteria
0	Requires 5,000+ customers to hit $1M ARR
1	Requires 3,000–5,000 customers
2	Requires 2,000–3,000 customers
3	Requires 1,000–2,000 customers
4	Requires 500–1,000 customers
5	Requires 200–500 customers (ARPA $150–$400/mo)

Weight: 20 points (Score × 4)

3. Willingness to Pay / Urgency (15%)

Score	Criteria
0	Pure nice-to-have; no deadline or pain driver
1	Mild convenience; saves some time
2	Noticeable time saver; some frustration with status quo
3	Clear time/money saver; buyers actively looking for solutions
4	Compliance-adjacent or tied to revenue; strong motivation
5	Mandatory/deadline-driven; non-compliance = penalties or lost revenue

Weight: 15 points (Score × 3)

4. Scope + Support Load (15%)

Score	Criteria
0	Heavy integrations, multi-jurisdiction, or extreme edge cases
1	Significant complexity; would need contractor help
2	Buildable but will have annoying support burden
3	Buildable in 6–10 weeks; moderate support expected
4	Buildable in 4–6 weeks; support load manageable
5	Buildable in 2–4 weeks; low support; clear scope

Weight: 15 points (Score × 3)

5. Expandability (10%)

Score	Criteria
0	Dead-end; no adjacent markets or upsells
1	Theoretical expansion but unclear path
2	One adjacent market or upsell tier possible
3	2–3 adjacent verticals or clear upsell path
4	Strong lateral expansion (device types, states, compliance areas)
5	Platform potential; multiple expansion vectors confirmed

Weight: 10 points (Score × 2)

6. Competition / Crowding (5%)

Score	Criteria
0	Funded incumbents dominate; no wedge visible
1	Strong incumbents with loyal customer base
2	Incumbents exist but stagnant or poorly executed
3	Incumbents exist but clear wedge opportunity
4	Few direct competitors; mostly generic substitutes
5	Greenfield; no credible niche-specific players

Weight: 5 points (Score × 1)

Decision Thresholds

Score Range	Decision	Action
80–100	Pursue aggressively	Start validation immediately
65–79	Pursue conditionally	Must clear 1–2 specific risks first
50–64	Hold	Needs more research or market timing
< 50	Kill	Move on; don't revisit without new signal

Bonus: Revenue Quality (Unweighted)

Not scored, but note for decision-making:

Factor	Assessment
Contract structure	Monthly / Annual / Multi-year
Payment reliability	Prepaid / Net-30 / Invoice-heavy
Expansion revenue	Per-seat / Usage / Upsell tiers / None

Annual contracts with expansion revenue = more defensible business.

Output

Filename: Niche_Score_<slug>.md

# Niche Success Score: <Title>

## Score Summary

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| **Total Score** | /100 |
| **Decision** | Pursue / Pursue-Conditional / Hold / Kill |
| **One-line rationale** | |

## Score Breakdown

| Dimension | Weight | Score (0–5) | Points | Notes |
|-----------|-------:|------------:|-------:|-------|
| Distribution (solo-executable) | 35 | | /35 | |
| ARPA + Path to $1–3M ARR | 20 | | /20 | |
| Willingness to Pay / Urgency | 15 | | /15 | |
| Scope + Support Load | 15 | | /15 | |
| Expandability | 10 | | /10 | |
| Competition / Crowding | 5 | | /5 | |
| **TOTAL** | 100 | — | **/100** | |

## Revenue Quality (Unweighted)

| Factor | Assessment |
|--------|------------|
| Contract structure | |
| Payment reliability | |
| Expansion revenue | |

## What Makes This Win (Top 3)

1. 
2. 
3. 

## What Kills This (Top 3)

1. 
2. 
3. 

## Lifestyle Math (Conservative)

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Target ARPA | |
| Customers for $1M ARR | |
| Customers for $3M ARR | |
| Primary acquisition channel | |
| Biggest assumption | |

## Founder Fit Summary

| Question | Answer |
|----------|--------|
| Natural buyer access? | Yes / No / Partial |
| Enjoy 50+ sales calls? | Yes / No / Unsure |
| Care in 3 years? | Yes / No / Unsure |
| Ethical concerns? | None / Minor / Major |

## Defensibility Assessment

| Moat Type | Present? | Strength |
|-----------|----------|----------|
| Data/workflow lock-in | Yes/No | Weak / Moderate / Strong |
| Relationship moat | Yes/No | Weak / Moderate / Strong |
| Distribution exclusivity | Yes/No | Weak / Moderate / Strong |
| Speed moat | Yes/No | Weak / Moderate / Strong |

## Next Steps (2-Week Gate)

### Validation Interviews

- **Target:** X interviews with [buyer persona]
- **Must hear:** 
- **Must NOT hear:**

### Pilot Design

- **Concierge pilot:**
- **Pricing test:**
- **Success metric:**

### Go/No-Go Criteria

- **Proceed if:**
- **Stop if:**

### Day-by-Day Plan

| Day | Activity | Deliverable |
|-----|----------|-------------|
| 1–3 | | |
| 4–7 | | |
| 8–10 | | |
| 11–14 | | |