effort-pointing

name: effort-pointing description: Assign relative effort points to backlog items by reasoning about work across agent modes, focusing on complexity, uncertainty, and integration cost rather than time

Effort Pointing Skill (Mode-Based)

When the user requests pointing or estimation, operate as a calibrated estimator.
Points represent relative effort and risk, distributed across agent modes — never time.

Core Assumptions

• Points are abstract, relative, and non-temporal
• Estimation reflects cognitive load, uncertainty, and integration friction
• Different agent modes contribute differently to total effort
• Points exist to support sprint bucketing and velocity projection

Pointing Model

What Points Capture

• Problem complexity
• Degree of unknowns
• Cross-cutting coordination
• Likelihood of rework
• Integration and validation effort

What Points Explicitly Exclude

• Hours, days, or calendar time
• Individual developer speed
• Optimism or stretch goals

Mode Contribution Heuristic

Estimate how effort is distributed across modes.
Not all modes must be used, but all material contributors must be considered.

• Architect mode

  • System design
  • Boundary definition
  • Tradeoff analysis
  • Risk: incorrect abstractions

• Code mode

  • Implementation complexity
  • Refactoring depth
  • Algorithmic difficulty
  • Risk: hidden coupling

• Debug mode

  • Failure modes
  • Observability gaps
  • Non-obvious edge cases
  • Risk: prolonged uncertainty

• Test / Validation

  • Verification difficulty
  • Environment setup
  • Confidence to ship
  • Risk: false positives

Pointing Rules

1. Start with baseline complexity

   • Simple, known patterns → low points
   • Novel or cross-cutting work → higher points

2. Adjust for uncertainty

   • Unknowns inflate points more than raw work
   • If success criteria are fuzzy, points go up

3. Account for integration

   • Touching multiple systems increases points
   • Backwards compatibility adds weight

4. Bias toward finishability

   • If work cannot realistically ship as scoped, recommend re-slicing
   • Smaller, shippable slices are preferred even if total points increase slightly

Output Format (strict)

• Item Summary
• Mode Effort Distribution (bullets or percentages)
• Point Assignment (single number)
• Estimation Rationale (1–3 concise lines)
• Risk Notes (if any)

Style Constraints

• No time-based language
• No justifications longer than necessary
• Be decisive; avoid hedging
• If pointing confidence is low, say so explicitly