supply-chain-optimization - SKILL.md Agent Skill

name: Supply Chain Optimization description: > USE THIS SKILL when the user asks about supply chain strategy, network design, inventory optimization, demand planning, S&OP, logistics, distribution, warehousing, transportation, last-mile delivery, supplier management, lead times, safety stock, EOQ, ABC analysis, XYZ analysis, supply chain risk, total cost of ownership, or supply chain maturity. Also trigger for questions about fulfillment strategy, order-to-delivery cycle, supply chain resilience, nearshoring, reshoring, or multi-echelon inventory.

Supply Chain Optimization

Required Inputs

Input	Description	Required?
Supply chain scope	Which nodes to analyze (supplier, manufacturing, distribution, last mile, or all)	Yes
Product / SKU data	Product portfolio, volume, value, demand variability	Yes
Current network map	Locations of suppliers, plants, DCs, customers	Yes
Cost data	Procurement, manufacturing, logistics, warehousing, inventory carrying costs	Yes
Service level targets	Fill rates, on-time delivery, lead time commitments	Yes
Demand data	Historical demand (24+ months preferred), seasonality, trends	Recommended
Supplier information	Lead times, MOQs, reliability, geographic locations	Recommended
Strategic context	Growth plans, M&A, market expansion, channel shifts	Recommended

Execution Steps

Step 1: Supply Chain Maturity Assessment

Score across 8 dimensions on a 1-5 scale:

Dimension	1 - Reactive	2 - Functional	3 - Integrated	4 - Collaborative	5 - Orchestrated
Demand Planning	No forecasting; order-driven only	Basic statistical forecasting	Demand sensing with multiple inputs	Collaborative forecasting with customers	AI-driven demand shaping
Inventory Mgmt	No formal policy; gut-feel ordering	Reorder point / EOQ basics	ABC segmentation; safety stock calc	Multi-echelon optimization	Dynamic, demand-driven positioning
Sourcing	Single source; price-only decisions	Approved vendor lists; RFQ process	Category management; TCO analysis	Strategic partnerships; joint planning	Supplier ecosystem orchestration
Manufacturing	Build to stock; long runs	Basic scheduling; some flexibility	Pull-based; mixed-model capability	Demand-driven; postponement	Agile / mass customization
Logistics	Reactive shipping; no carrier mgmt	Rate shopping; basic TMS	Optimized routing; mode selection	Integrated logistics network	Autonomous / real-time optimization
Visibility	No end-to-end visibility	Visibility within functional silos	Cross-functional dashboards	Multi-tier supply chain visibility	Predictive / prescriptive analytics
Risk Management	No risk assessment	Basic risk register	Scenario planning; dual sourcing	Continuous monitoring; response plans	Predictive risk management
Sustainability	No sustainability focus	Compliance-driven only	Scope 1-2 emissions tracked	Full Scope 3 measurement; targets set	Circular supply chain; net-zero path

Overall Maturity = Average score. Prioritize dimensions with scores below 3.

Step 2: Network Design Analysis

Map the current supply chain network and evaluate:

Network Structure Assessment:

Element	Current State	Benchmark / Best Practice	Gap
Number of suppliers (Tier 1)
Number of manufacturing sites
Number of distribution centers
Average distance to customer
Number of echelons
% single-sourced SKUs
Geographic concentration risk

Network Cost Breakdown:

Cost Category	Annual Cost ($)	% of Revenue	% of Total SC Cost	Benchmark
Raw materials / COGS
Inbound freight
Manufacturing / conversion
Warehousing / DC operations
Outbound freight
Last-mile delivery
Inventory carrying cost
Customs / duties / tariffs
Total Supply Chain Cost

Network Optimization Levers:

Facility consolidation / rationalization
Geographic repositioning (nearshoring, reshoring)
Multi-echelon inventory repositioning
Transportation mode shifts
Channel-specific fulfillment strategies

Step 3: Inventory Optimization

ABC/XYZ Classification

Classify all SKUs on two dimensions:

ABC (Value):

A: Top 80% of revenue (typically 15-20% of SKUs)
B: Next 15% of revenue (typically 25-30% of SKUs)
C: Bottom 5% of revenue (typically 50-60% of SKUs)

XYZ (Demand Variability — Coefficient of Variation):

X: CV < 0.5 — Stable, predictable demand
Y: CV 0.5-1.0 — Variable demand with trends/seasonality
Z: CV > 1.0 — Highly erratic, unpredictable demand

Combined Matrix — Inventory Strategy:

	X (Stable)	Y (Variable)	Z (Erratic)
A (High Value)	Lean flow; JIT; low safety stock	Demand-driven; moderate safety stock	Strategic buffer; vendor-managed
B (Medium Value)	Kanban; reorder point	Periodic review; seasonal build	Make-to-order where possible
C (Low Value)	Bulk order; maximize efficiency	Periodic review; accept stockouts	Eliminate or special-order only

Safety Stock Calculation

For each SKU segment:

Safety Stock = Z-score x sqrt(LT x Demand_Variance + Demand_Avg^2 x LT_Variance)

Where:
  Z-score = Service level factor (95% = 1.65, 97% = 1.88, 99% = 2.33)
  LT = Average lead time (in periods)
  Demand_Variance = Variance of demand per period
  Demand_Avg = Average demand per period
  LT_Variance = Variance of lead time (in periods)

EOQ with Total Cost

EOQ = sqrt(2 x D x S / H)

Where:
  D = Annual demand (units)
  S = Fixed ordering cost per order ($)
  H = Annual holding cost per unit ($) = Unit cost x Carrying cost %

Total Annual Inventory Cost = (D/Q x S) + (Q/2 x H) + (Safety Stock x H)

Calculate optimal inventory investment and compare to current state.

Step 4: Demand Planning & S&OP Assessment

Demand Planning Effectiveness:

Metric	Current	Target	Gap
Forecast accuracy (MAPE)		< 20% (A items)
Forecast bias		< 5%
Forecast horizon		12-18 months rolling
Forecast granularity		SKU x Location x Week
Demand sensing lag		< 1 week

S&OP Process Maturity:

Element	Current Practice	Target Practice
Meeting cadence		Monthly minimum
Participants		Cross-functional: Sales, Ops, Finance, Supply Chain
Planning horizon		18-24 months rolling
Scenario planning		3 scenarios (base, upside, downside)
Financial integration		P&L impact quantified for each scenario
Decision authority		Clear escalation; executive sign-off
KPI tracking		Forecast accuracy, plan adherence, bias

Step 5: Supply Chain Risk Assessment

Evaluate risk across 5 categories:

Risk Category	Risk Factor	Risk Score
Supplier	Single-source dependency	P x I
Supplier	Financial viability of key suppliers
Supplier	Geographic concentration
Operational	Capacity constraints
Operational	Quality failures
Logistics	Transportation disruption
Logistics	Port / border congestion
Demand	Demand volatility / bullwhip
External	Geopolitical / trade policy
External	Natural disaster / pandemic

Risk Score Interpretation:

20-25: Critical — Immediate action required; executive visibility
12-19: High — Mitigation plan within 30 days
6-11: Medium — Monitor quarterly; contingency plan in place
1-5: Low — Annual review

Step 6: Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Analysis

Calculate TCO for each major supply chain node / sourcing option:

Cost Element	Current ($)	Alternative 1 ($)	Alternative 2 ($)
Acquisition Costs
Unit price / COGS
Freight / inbound logistics
Customs / duties / tariffs
Ownership Costs
Inventory carrying cost
Warehousing / handling
Quality / inspection costs
Operating Costs
Outbound logistics
Returns / reverse logistics
Stockout cost (lost sales)
Risk Costs
Supply disruption (expected value)
Currency / commodity hedging
Compliance / regulatory
Total Cost of Ownership	$[X]	$[X]	$[X]
TCO per unit

Step 7: Develop Optimization Recommendations

For each recommendation, specify:

Description of the change
Affected nodes in the supply chain
Expected benefit ($ and service level impact)
Investment required
Implementation timeline
Risk and dependencies
ROI / payback period

Categorize recommendations:

Quick wins (0-6 months): Parameter tuning, policy changes, contract renegotiation
Medium-term (6-18 months): Network changes, system implementations, process redesign
Strategic (18+ months): New facilities, major technology, structural network changes

Output Template

# Supply Chain Optimization Assessment: [Company / Business Unit]

**Client:** [Name]
**Date:** [Date]
**Scope:** [Nodes covered: Supplier / Manufacturing / Distribution / Last Mile]

---

## 1. Executive Summary

[2-3 paragraphs: current state, key gaps, total optimization opportunity]

**Current Total Supply Chain Cost:** $[X]M ([X]% of revenue)
**Identified Savings Opportunity:** $[X]M ([X]% reduction)
**Required Investment:** $[X]M
**Service Level Impact:** [Improvement / Maintained / Trade-off described]

---

## 2. Supply Chain Maturity Assessment

| Dimension | Score (1-5) | Priority Actions |
|-----------|------------|-----------------|
| Demand Planning | | |
| Inventory Management | | |
| Sourcing | | |
| Manufacturing | | |
| Logistics | | |
| Visibility | | |
| Risk Management | | |
| Sustainability | | |
| **Overall** | **[Avg]** | |

---

## 3. Network Map Summary

### Current Network
- **Suppliers:** [X] Tier 1 across [X] countries
- **Manufacturing:** [X] plants in [locations]
- **Distribution:** [X] DCs in [locations]
- **Customer base:** [X] ship-to points; [geography]

### Network Cost Structure

| Cost Category | Annual ($M) | % of Revenue | vs. Benchmark |
|--------------|------------|-------------|---------------|
| Procurement / COGS | | | |
| Inbound logistics | | | |
| Manufacturing / conversion | | | |
| Warehousing | | | |
| Outbound logistics | | | |
| Inventory carrying | | | |
| **Total SC Cost** | **$[X]** | **[X]%** | **[+/- X pp]** |

### Network Recommendations

| # | Recommendation | Benefit ($M/yr) | Investment ($M) | Timeline |
|---|---------------|-----------------|----------------|----------|
| 1 | | | | |
| 2 | | | | |

---

## 4. Inventory Optimization

### ABC/XYZ Classification Summary

| Segment | # SKUs | % Revenue | Current Inventory ($M) | Optimal Inventory ($M) | Reduction ($M) |
|---------|--------|-----------|----------------------|----------------------|----------------|
| AX | | | | | |
| AY | | | | | |
| AZ | | | | | |
| BX | | | | | |
| BY | | | | | |
| BZ | | | | | |
| CX | | | | | |
| CY | | | | | |
| CZ | | | | | |
| **Total** | | | **$[X]** | **$[X]** | **$[X]** |

### Key Inventory Metrics

| Metric | Current | Optimized | Improvement |
|--------|---------|-----------|-------------|
| Total inventory value | $[X]M | $[X]M | -[X]% |
| Inventory turns | [X] | [X] | +[X] |
| Days of supply | [X] | [X] | -[X] days |
| Fill rate | [X]% | [X]% | +[X] pp |
| Obsolete / slow-moving | $[X]M | $[X]M | -[X]% |

---

## 5. Demand Planning & S&OP

### Current State Assessment
[Summary of demand planning maturity and S&OP gaps]

### Recommendations

| # | Recommendation | Expected Impact | Timeline |
|---|---------------|-----------------|----------|
| 1 | | | |
| 2 | | | |

---

## 6. Supply Chain Risk Heat Map

| Risk Factor | Probability | Impact | Score | Status | Mitigation |
|------------|------------|--------|-------|--------|------------|
| [Risk 1] | [1-5] | [1-5] | [P x I] | [Critical/High/Med/Low] | |
| [Risk 2] | | | | | |

### Top 3 Risk Mitigation Priorities
1. [Risk]: [Specific action plan with timeline]
2. [Risk]: [Specific action plan with timeline]
3. [Risk]: [Specific action plan with timeline]

---

## 7. Total Cost of Ownership Analysis

[TCO comparison table for key sourcing / network decisions]

---

## 8. Optimization Roadmap

### Quick Wins (0-6 Months)

| # | Initiative | Benefit ($M/yr) | Investment ($M) | Payback |
|---|-----------|-----------------|----------------|---------|
| 1 | | | | |

### Medium-Term (6-18 Months)

| # | Initiative | Benefit ($M/yr) | Investment ($M) | ROI |
|---|-----------|-----------------|----------------|-----|
| 1 | | | | |

### Strategic (18+ Months)

| # | Initiative | Benefit ($M/yr) | Investment ($M) | ROI |
|---|-----------|-----------------|----------------|-----|
| 1 | | | | |

**Total Optimization Value:** $[X]M annually
**Total Investment:** $[X]M
**Blended ROI:** [X]%

---

## 9. Recommended Next Steps

1. [Immediate action with owner and deadline]
2. [Second action]
3. [Third action]

Quality Checks

All supply chain nodes in scope are assessed — no gaps between supplier and end customer
Inventory optimization includes both value (ABC) and variability (XYZ) dimensions
Safety stock calculations use actual lead time variability, not just average lead time
TCO analysis includes hidden costs (quality, risk, inventory carrying) beyond unit price
Risk assessment covers all 5 categories with specific mitigation actions
Network cost breakdown sums to total and percentages reconcile to revenue
Service level impact is stated for every recommendation — no savings without trade-off transparency
S&OP assessment evaluates process maturity, not just whether meetings happen
Recommendations are sequenced with dependencies identified
Inventory reduction targets are achievable without degrading fill rates below target
Benchmarks cited are industry-specific, not generic
Sustainability dimension is addressed, even if briefly