cre-analysis-underwriting - SKILL.md Agent Skill

name: cre-analysis-underwriting version: "1.5.0" last_modified: "2026-03-22" description: | Use when evaluating a commercial real estate property, CRE loan, or property-level cash flow. Covers market framing, tenancy and lease rollover, NOI construction, valuation, three-constraint loan sizing, and downside-oriented risk assessment across stabilized, transitional, and development situations. category: real-estate related_skills: - credit-events-distressed - credit-memo-generator - credit-modeling-and-valuation - credit-surveillance-monitoring - debt-structure-covenants - industry-sector-analysis - portfolio-investment-process - securitization-and-clos - trading-pricing-mechanics triggers: - CRE underwriting - commercial real estate - commercial mortgage - CMBS underwriting - property valuation - NOI analysis - lease analysis - loan sizing - debt yield analysis - cap rate analysis - submarket analysis - multifamily underwriting - office underwriting - industrial underwriting - retail underwriting - hospitality underwriting - construction lending - value-add underwriting disambiguation: | Prefer this skill when the context is a property, real estate asset, or CRE loan. For corporate leverage, coverage, and issuer-level cash flow, use credit-modeling-and-valuation. For cap rate or spread discussion as a market trading input rather than a property valuation input, use trading-pricing-mechanics.

CRE Analysis & Underwriting

Commercial real estate underwriting is property-first and cash-flow-first: start with the asset, market, tenancy, lease rollover, and capital needs, then size debt against durable in-place and stressed performance rather than sponsor upside alone.

Core Workflow

Frame the asset and market: Identify property type, location, submarket, competitive position, liquidity, and where the asset sits on the stabilized-to-transitional spectrum.
Build in-place cash flow: Start from the rent roll, lease terms, occupancy, reimbursements, credit loss, operating expenses, and recurring capital needs to derive in-place NOI.
Separate stabilized from pro forma: Distinguish what exists today from what requires leasing, renovation, tenant rollover, re-tenanting, or market rent growth assumptions.
Value the real estate through multiple lenses: Use income capitalization first, then cross-check with sales comparison and cost or replacement context where useful.
Size debt under simultaneous constraints: Test LTV, DSCR, and debt yield together and identify the binding constraint rather than relying on a single ratio.
Stress the major drivers: Pressure test occupancy, renewal probability, downtime, TI/LC, operating costs, exit cap rate, and interest rate assumptions.
Translate findings into a lender view: Summarize proceeds, structure, reserve needs, key diligence items, and the risks that could impair refinanceability or repayment.

Available References

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Unless a path is explicitly rooted at project references/ or skills/..., the references/... paths below are skill-local to skills/cre-analysis-underwriting/.

Core Underwriting

references/market-submarket-analysis-framework.md - Market demand, supply, competitive set, and scenario framing.
references/property-type-deep-dive-analysis.md - Property-type operating models, key underwriting questions, and common failure modes.
references/lease-analysis-deep-dive.md - Lease economics, rollover exposure, downtime, concessions, and tenant concentration.
references/tenant-credit-assessment-framework.md - Tenant credit quality, tenant granularity, and concentration analysis.
references/income-capitalization-approach.md - Primary stabilized valuation framework and cap-rate judgment.
references/valuation-cross-checks.md - Cost approach and sales comparison as valuation cross-checks.
references/loan-sizing-three-simultaneous-constraints.md - LTV, DSCR, and debt-yield sizing logic.
references/sensitivity-analysis-for-cre.md - Scenario design, breakpoints, and downside translation to lender risk.
references/property-risk-assessment.md - Physical, legal, market, and execution risk framework.

Transitional and Development

references/construction-development-underwriting.md - Transitional, value-add, construction, and stabilization-risk underwriting framework.
references/environmental-liability-assessment.md - Environmental diligence, liability pathways, and lender protections.

CRE Modeling and Metrics

references/cre-pro-forma-cash-flow-modeling.md - NOI buildup, lease types, operating expenses, capex, and value-add scenario modeling.
references/commercial-real-estate-credit-metrics.md - NOI, cap rate, DSCR, LTV, debt yield, and rent coverage ratio definitions and interpretation.

Workflow and Portfolio Context

references/cre-underwriting-checklist.md - Single checklist covering screening, diligence, approval conditions, and post-close monitoring.
references/investment-strategy-spectrum-lender-positioning.md - Business-plan risk, lender positioning, and downside posture.

Examples

Examples support application, not principle storage.

examples/worked-loan-sizing-example.md - Simple binding-constraint illustration.
examples/worked-office-underwriting-case-study.md - Full office underwriting case with rollover and refinance risk.
examples/worked-multifamily-underwriting-case-study.md - Full multifamily case with valuation, sizing, and stress testing.

Output Deliverables

When asked to analyze or underwrite a CRE property or CRE loan, produce:

Source citations: Explicitly cite every data source, market input, and qualitative fact used.
- When a stable direct URL exists, include it inline with the citation and keep any page, slide, filing-date, report-date, or access-date detail in the same citation.
Property snapshot: Property type, location, size, occupancy, tenant mix, lease rollover profile, and major asset-specific considerations.
Cash flow bridge: In-place NOI, stabilized NOI, recurring capital needs, and the key differences between current performance and pro forma assumptions.
Valuation and loan sizing: Value range, proceeds under LTV, DSCR, and debt yield, plus the binding constraint and any reserve requirements.
Stress and sensitivity view: Downside cases for occupancy, rents, downtime, expenses, exit cap rate, and interest rate assumptions.
Risk and mitigant table: Tenant concentration, rollover, capex, market liquidity, environmental, sponsor execution, and refinance risk.
Comparable transactions: Relevant sales, financings, or market markers that help position the subject asset.
Recommendation and open diligence items: Clear lender view, key conditions, and unresolved diligence requests.

Limitations

Cap rate valuation is weakest for distressed, highly vacant, single-tenant, specialty, and ground-up assets.
Pro forma underwriting often overstates lease-up pace, renewal probability, and rent growth; stress each driver independently.
Comparable transactions are only useful when tenancy, quality, location, vintage, and transaction timing are truly comparable.
CRE is intensely local; national benchmarks should calibrate judgment, not replace submarket-specific evidence.
Insurance, taxes, and capital needs can reprice abruptly; do not treat recent operating conditions as permanent.

Data Quality

Never silently fill missing data with assumptions. If information is incomplete, use skills/credit-memo-generator/references/incomplete-data-guidance.md to disclose gaps explicitly.
Keep in-place, stabilized, and sponsor case assumptions separate. Blending them obscures the real risk transfer from present cash flow to future execution.
Use references/market-benchmarks.md and references/typical-deal-parameters.md to calibrate assumptions, not to substitute for property-specific facts.
When standard CRE frameworks may be unreliable, consult skills/credit-memo-generator/references/analytical-limitations.md and state the limitation directly.