exercise-assignment-dividend-risk

name: exercise-assignment-dividend-risk description: "Exercise Assignment Dividend Risk workflows for early-exercise analysis, assignment probability monitoring, and ex-dividend event controls in options books. use when tasks involve american-style exercise decisions, short-option assignment risk, dividend-arbitrage exposure, or production monitoring of assignment-sensitive positions."

Exercise Assignment Dividend Risk

objective

Execute assignment and early-exercise risk workflows with event-aware diagnostics and defensible control thresholds.

workflow

1. define contract style, dividend calendar, and carry assumptions.
2. estimate early-exercise incentives around ex-dividend and carry conditions.
3. score assignment probability for short options by moneyness and time value.
4. stress assignment impact on inventory, financing, and overnight gap risk.
5. release only when event controls and de-risking rules are operationally sound.

required diagnostics

• early-exercise incentive distribution around ex-dividend dates.
• short-option assignment probability by moneyness bucket.
• residual time-value versus exercise-value relationship.
• assignment shock impact on overnight exposure and borrow needs.
• event-driven pnl slippage around exercise windows.

risk controls

• enforce mandatory pre-event review for assignment-sensitive positions.
• enforce delta and inventory caps across dividend events.
• enforce automatic hedge and borrow checks on assignment triggers.

outputs

• run python scripts/exercise_assignment_dividend_risk_diagnostics.py input.csv --output diagnostics.json and keep the json artifact.
• write an implementation memo using references/exercise-assignment-dividend-risk-playbook.md with assumptions, tests, limits, and rollout plan.

resources

• use scripts/exercise_assignment_dividend_risk_diagnostics.py for deterministic diagnostics.
• use references/exercise-assignment-dividend-risk-playbook.md for the domain checklist and delivery structure.