season-outlook

name: season-outlook description: "Provides a season-level analysis with record trends, category evolution, roster trajectory, and playoff positioning. Best used at end of week or month for big-picture perspective. Triggers on: 'season outlook', 'how is my season going', 'playoff chances', 'season review', 'monthly recap', 'big picture', 'overall analysis', 'season trend', 'am I on track'."

Season Outlook — Big Picture Analysis

When the user wants a high-level view of their season trajectory, playoff positioning, or a recap of recent performance, follow this workflow.

Step 1: Gather Current State

1. get_standings — League standings with full records
2. get_my_roster — Current roster composition and stats
3. get_scoring_categories — The 14 H2H categories for reference

Step 2: Load Season History from Memory

If memory tools are available (this skill benefits heavily from memory):

1. get_matchup_history — All recorded weekly results with category breakdowns
2. get_category_trends — Category assessments over time
3. get_roster_moves — Full transaction log for the season
4. get_preferences — Strategy settings (punt categories, etc.)

Step 3: Record & Trend Analysis

Win/Loss Trajectory

From standings and matchup history:

• Current record and league rank
• Recent form: last 3-5 weeks results
• Are you trending up (winning more recently) or down?
• How many games back from a playoff spot (or first place)?

Category Evolution

From category trends in memory:

• Which categories have improved over the season? (credit roster moves)
• Which have declined? (flag concern)
• Which have been consistently dominant? (core strengths)
• Which have been consistently weak? (punt candidates or improvement targets)
• Are your punt categories actually being punted, or are you accidentally investing in them?

If no memory trends exist, analyze the current roster stats vs league averages by running get_league_rosters and comparing.

Roster Moves Assessment

From roster moves in memory:

• How many adds/drops this season?
• Have the moves improved the roster? (compare early-season vs now)
• Any moves that backfired? (dropped someone who performed well after)
• Trade history: did you win or lose your trades?

Step 4: Playoff Positioning

Standings Math

• How many teams make the playoffs? (typically top 4-6 in a 10-12 team league)
• Current rank vs cutoff
• How many wins needed over remaining weeks to clinch?
• Which teams are you competing with for the last spot?

Strength of Schedule

Call get_box_scores for recent weeks to understand the competitive landscape:

• Who are the strongest teams right now?
• Do you have favorable matchups coming up?
• Any must-win weeks against direct playoff competitors?

Step 5: Present the Season Outlook

The Dashboard

Record: X-Y-Z | Rank: #N | Playoff Position: IN/OUT/BUBBLE
Recent Form (L5): W-W-L-W-L
Category Record: [Wins]-[Losses]-[Ties] across all categories

Category Health Report

A table of all 14 categories with:

Key Insights

3-5 bullet points on the most important observations:

• "Your pitching has carried you — ERA/WHIP/K are your best categories"
• "SB has improved since adding [player] in week 8"
• "You're losing close matchups by 1-2 categories — fixing HLD could flip those"

Recommendations

Concrete next steps prioritized by impact:

1. Immediate — Roster moves to make this week
2. Short-term — Trade targets or free agent strategies for the next 2-3 weeks
3. Long-term — Strategic shifts for playoff positioning (change punt strategy? go all-in on pitching?)

Step 6: Save to Memory (if available)

• save_category_trend for each of the 14 categories with current assessment
• If strategic decisions are made (e.g., "start punting L and W"), set_preference with updated punt categories
• add_to_watchlist for any trade targets or free agents identified