name: alex-effort-estimation
description: Estimate task duration from an AI-assisted development perspective rather than traditional human developer estimates
tier: extended
applyTo: '/estimate,/effort,/planning,/roadmap,**/tracker'
Alex Effort Estimation
Convert human developer estimates to AI-assisted timelines.
Last Updated: April 2026
Quick Reference: Effort Units
| Unit |
Time |
Use For |
| ⚡ Instant |
< 5 min |
Single edit, lookup, generation |
| 🔄 Short |
5-30 min |
Multi-file change, docs, skill |
| ⏱️ Medium |
30-60 min |
Feature, test suite, debugging |
| 📦 Session |
1-2 hours |
Major feature, release |
| 🗓️ Multi-session |
2+ hours |
Large refactor, new system |
Conversion Table
| Task Type |
Human → Alex |
Multiplier |
| Research |
8h → 45m |
×0.10 |
| Code generation |
4h → 35m |
×0.15 |
| Documentation |
4h → 25m |
×0.10 |
| Skill creation |
2h → 15m |
×0.12 |
| Refactoring |
4h → 1h |
×0.25 |
| Bug fix (known cause) |
2h → 35m |
×0.30 |
| Bug fix (unknown) |
4h → 2h |
×0.50 |
| Architecture design |
8h → 2h |
×0.25 |
| Test writing |
4h → 1.5h |
×0.40 |
| New feature (S) |
4h → 1h |
×0.25 |
| New feature (M) |
2d → 3h |
×0.20 |
| New feature (L) |
1w → 6h |
×0.15 |
| Release process |
4h → 1h |
×0.25 |
Formula: Alex Time = Human Estimate × Multiplier + Bottlenecks
What Accelerates (4-10×)
| Activity |
Why Fast |
| Research |
Semantic search vs browsing |
| Boilerplate |
Generated, not typed |
| Multi-file edits |
Parallel in one pass |
| Code review |
Instant pattern recognition |
| Learning new tech |
Bootstrap learning skill |
| Documentation |
Generated from code/context |
Bottlenecks (Cannot Accelerate)
These take real time regardless of AI:
| Bottleneck |
Impact |
Mitigation |
| Test execution |
×1.0 |
Parallelize, fast feedback loops |
| Build/compile |
×1.0 |
Incremental builds, caching |
| Human approval |
Variable |
Batch decisions, async review |
| External APIs |
Variable |
Mock for dev, timeout handling |
| CI/CD pipeline |
×1.0 |
Optimize pipeline, parallel jobs |
| Context loading |
×0.8 |
Pre-read relevant files |
Estimation Template
| Task | Human Est. | Alex Est. | Bottleneck |
|------|------------|-----------|------------|
| [Task] | [Xh/d] | [⚡🔄⏱️📦🗓️] | [None/Test/Approval/Build] |
Example:
| Task |
Human |
Alex |
Bottleneck |
| Add new API endpoint |
4h |
🔄 30m |
None |
| Write integration tests |
3h |
⏱️ 1.5h |
Test execution |
| Deploy to staging |
2h |
📦 1.5h |
CI pipeline |
| Code review cycle |
2h |
⏱️ 2h |
Human approval |
| Total |
11h |
📦 5.5h |
- |
Planning Guidance
When Estimating
- Apply multiplier to core work
- Add bottleneck time at ×1.0
- Factor approval cycles (human response latency)
- Buffer 20% for unexpected iteration
Success Predictors
| Good Sign |
Bad Sign |
| Clear "done" definition |
Vague scope |
| Quick win potential |
External dependencies |
| Daily incremental work |
Big-bang delivery |
| Defined acceptance criteria |
"We'll know it when we see it" |
Scope Guidance
| Alex Estimate |
Scope Health |
| ⚡ Instant |
Perfect — ship it |
| 🔄 Short |
Good — single session |
| ⏱️ Medium |
OK — plan breaks |
| 📦 Session |
Consider splitting |
| 🗓️ Multi-session |
Split required |
Anti-Patterns
❌ Instant everything — Testing and approval take real time
❌ Skip review — Speed without quality is waste
❌ Ignore iteration — First attempt isn't always right
❌ Forget context — Reading workspace takes time
❌ No buffer — Edge cases and clarifications happen
By